Worst Quarter in 4 Years, Oil vs Stocks, Win Rates From Buying Corrections, the Case for T and VZ
March 31, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readHosts Dow and Brown review the stock market's volatile first quarter of 2026, capped by a sharp rally on Middle East de-escalation headlines, while highlighting multiple compression amid record earnings projections, opportunities in beaten-down stocks, and historical data favoring buys after corrections.
Rally on Iran De-escalation News
The Dow jumped 1,000 points midday after Wall Street Journal reports: Iran's President Pezeshkian said the country is ready to end the war with the U.S. if guarantees are provided, and Trump told aides he's open to halting hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, expecting other nations to reopen it. Markets had awaited such signals amid a slow 10% S&P 500 correction without a VIX spike or capitulation, avoiding the "taco put" risk of panic-selling lows. Oil (WTI) dipped intraday but rebounded as Iran's statement echoed prior positions demanding reparations and assurances. U.S. natural gas prices barely moved due to energy independence and exports via LNG terminals, unlike Europe's vertical spike. Software stocks like Meta (+7%) showed psychological follow-through, though credit cards (Visa +0.9%) lagged.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:13) **Intro Banter and Sponsor Shoutouts** - Light chat on panic selling and sponsors before diving into markets
- 2 (05:22) **Market Bounce on Iran De-escalation Headlines** - Rally triggered by WSJ reports on Iran talks and Trump willingness to end hostilities without reopening Hormuz
- 3 (07:50) **No Capitulation Despite 10% Correction** - Slow bleed without VIX spike due to "taco put" risk of missing rebound
- 4 (11:31) **Sector Performance Post-Bounce** - Energy gives back gains, software lacks follow-through, multiples compress despite high earnings
- 5 (16:35) **Energy and Tech Sector Charts** - XLE profit-taking, semis stable, IGV bounces from lows
- 6 (18:07) **Worst Quarter for Stocks in 4 Years** - Nasdaq down 10%+, straight decline since Feb amid disrupted broadening rally
- 7 (21:40) **Correction Winners and Lessons** - Energy up 39%, halo stocks outperform; not all stocks correlate in dips
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Show Notes
Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about: the worst quarter in four years, the opposite of private credit, win rates after corrections, mystery charts, and more!
This episode is s sponsored by Public and Janus Henderson Investors.
- Find out more at https://public.com/WAYT
- Learn more at https://www.janushenderson.com/
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