Treasury yields break out, how to invest with Bill Ackman, Workday rumors, off-balance sheet madness
August 18, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readThe episode opens with a chaotic scene: a car crashed through the window of The Compound’s Long Island office, leaving the hosts to dig through rubble. Josh gets a piece of glass in his finger from what he suspects was a Honda. The incident sets a fittingly messy stage for a dense news roundup covering bond yields, off-balance-sheet AI financing, Bill Ackman’s empire, and the state of the software market.
Treasury yields break out, but the stock market isn't panicking
The dominant market story is the persistent rise in long-term bond yields. The 30-year Treasury yield is trading at its highest level since 2003 (or 2007, depending on the metric), and the 10-year yield has climbed 51 basis points from recent lows. Josh and Michael debate whether the stock market’s calm in the face of this move is justified. Michael argues it is: the rise has been gradual, happening over five months rather than two weeks, and the stock market is responding to strong earnings, not fretting about yields.
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What you'll learn
- 1 Treasury yields break out, how to invest with Bill Ackman, Workday rumors, off-balance sheet madness
- 2 (00:26) **Office Disaster Story** - A car crashed through the office window, hosts recount the damage and a minor injury from cleanup
- 3 (01:18) **Show Philosophy & Format** - Hosts explain they curate topics rather than covering everything like financial TV
- 4 (05:15) **Treasury Yield Breakout Discussion** - Analysis of the persistent rise in long-term bond yields and what's driving it
- 5 (09:37) **10-Year vs 30-Year Yield Dynamics** - Why the 10-year matters more for asset prices and remains in range
- 6 (10:44) **Global Yield Chart from Robin Brooks** - Forward bond yields rising worldwide signal fiscal stress
- 7 (14:12) **Record Budget Deficit Numbers** - The US government's fiscal situation deteriorates rapidly
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Show Notes
On this episode of What Are Your Thoughts, Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick break down what’s driving the global bond selloff, why pressure has shifted from the front end of the yield curve to long-term rates, and what it could mean for investors.
Plus: Big Tech’s massive off-balance-sheet AI commitments, whether the bottom is finally in for enterprise SaaS after the Workday takeover reports, a market that keeps going all the way up, and a look inside Bill Ackman’s evolving Pershing Square empire and his search for permanent capital.
This episode is sponsored by Franklin Templeton. Learn more at https://www.franklintempleton.com/advantage
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
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