Sell-side Indicator (BofA) is almost on Sell, Vix is still asleep, the Bear Case revisited, FICO massacred | WAYT?
October 6, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readSell-Side Indicator Nears Sell, VIX Stays Asleep, and FICO Gets Massacred
On this episode of What Are Your Thoughts?, Josh Brown and Michael Batnick tackled a market that is sending mixed signals: the S&P 500 sits near all-time highs, earnings are beating expectations, and yet the VIX is flatlining at 16 while breadth divergences grow more extreme. The conversation ranged from a contrarian sell-side indicator flirting with a sell signal to the dramatic collapse of a long-time monopoly stock, with a recurring tension between what the data says and what the market feels.
The Sell-Side Indicator: 30 Basis Points From a Signal
Savita Subramanian's sell-side indicator at Bank of America increased in September and now sits just 30 basis points from triggering a sell signal. The indicator tracks the average recommended equity allocation from Wall Street strategists and has historically worked as a contrarian tool—extreme bullishness among strategists has preceded trouble, while extreme bearishness has marked buying opportunities.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (04:00) **Sell-side Indicator Nears Sell Signal** - Josh and Michael discuss BofA's Savita Subramanian's sell-side indicator, which is just 30 basis points from triggering a sell signal, and debate whether the market truly feels bearish.
- 2 (12:44) **RenMac's Market Cycle Clock Warns of Danger Zone** - Jeff de Graaff's charts show the VIX flatlining since March while FX and bond volatility spike, and RenMac's cycle clock sits in the upper-right quadrant where bad things historically happen.
- 3 (19:57) **Michael Burry's Denial Tweet Gets Dismissed** - Burry tweeted the market is in "stage one of grief: denial per 2000 and 2008," but Josh and Michael are skeptical of his perpetual bearishness.
- 4 (24:54) **Bear Case Pillar Crumbles: Bond Auctions Overwhelmingly Strong** - The idea that investors won't show up for hyperscaler bond auctions is put to bed, as Paramount's debt offering saw $150 billion in orders for a $52 billion deal.
- 5 (29:21) **FICO's Monopoly Massacred by Regulatory Shift** - Fair Isaac Corporation, home of the FICO score, is the worst-performing S&P 500 stock year-to-date, down 60% after the FHFA allowed VantageScore as a competing credit scoring system.
- 6 (39:14) **The Unbroadening: Tech Dominates While Everything Else Bleeds** - The market has re-concentrated, with NVIDIA alone larger than consumer discretionary, industrials, staples, and energy sectors combined.
- 7 (49:58) **Consumer Discretionary Warning Signals** - While technology earnings look safe, Josh flags consumer discretionary stocks like American Express, TJ Maxx, and Walmart getting mauled as a real warning.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about: whether the stock market is getting too bullish, why the VIX remains unusually calm, and what weakening market breadth could mean for investors. They also break down Michael Burry’s latest warning, Nvidia’s growing influence on the S&P 500, FICO’s stunning collapse, and the disconnect between mega-cap tech and the rest of the market.
This episode is sponsored by Neuberger. Explore NBSD–including all risks and important information‒at https://www.neuberger.com/nbsd
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
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