Midsummer’s Melt-Up, Robinhood, SpaceX and Palantir Report, Chips Rip, Leopold’s Margin Call
August 4, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readPalantir reported its best quarter ever, and the stock surged 30%. SpaceX delivered a blowout first quarterly report as a public company, and the stock fell 8%. A 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher named Leopold Aschenbrenner just lost more money in two weeks than any individual trader in history — and he is almost certainly going to be fine. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high in the middle of August, and Josh Brown called it a "midsummer melt-up" with a tape he described as the healthiest he has seen in 29 years on Wall Street.
This episode of The Compound and Friends covered a dense earnings week, a massive margin call, a rotation into semiconductors, and a broader market that is behaving nothing like the dot-com bubble — even though the comparisons keep coming.
The Earnings Supercycle
Corporate America is shocking analysts to the upside at an unusual rate. Through the second quarter, 86% of S&P 500 companies beat Wall Street earnings estimates, well above the long-run average of 76%. Revenue growth came in at 14.1% year over year, 200 basis points above what analysts expected at the start of the season. Ten of eleven sectors posted year-over-year profit increases. Healthcare was the standout: 100% of companies in that sector beat estimates.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:25) **Show Open & Housekeeping** - Hosts Michael Batnick and Josh Brown kick off the live show, greet the chat, and read a sponsorship ad for Janice Henderson Investors.
- 2 (02:26) **SpaceX Reports First Public Quarter** - SpaceX releases its first quarterly report as a public company, beating revenue expectations across all segments.
- 3 (06:56) **SpaceX Stock Reaction & Lock-Up Expiry** - The stock fell ~8% after hours despite the beat, driven by short selling and upcoming shareholder lock-up expirations.
- 4 (09:47) **Palantir Earnings Blowout** - Palantir reports record Q2 results, with U.S. commercial revenue growing 149% and the stock surging 30%.
- 5 (13:33) **Broad Earnings Season Observations** - The hosts discuss the extreme stock moves after earnings, with many companies gaining or losing 30% in a single day, and some retracing those moves on day two.
- 6 (17:17) **Toast Earnings & Trade** - Toast beats top and bottom line estimates, with strong growth in locations and payment volume, but the stock is flat after hours.
- 7 (19:08) **Midsummer Melt-Up & Market Health** - Josh argues the current market rally is one of the healthiest he has seen in 29 years, citing broad participation and strong fundamentals.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
On this episode of What Are Your Thoughts, Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick as they break down another massive week for the markets, including SpaceX's first public earnings report, Palantir's blockbuster quarter, and what strong Q2 earnings say about corporate America. They also discuss the recent semiconductor selloff, the rise and fall of hedge fund manager Leopold Aschenbrenner, Robinhood, the risks of leveraged investing, and Michael's bull case for Floor & Decor. Topics include: - SpaceX's first earnings report - Palantir's explosive earnings - Q2 corporate profits - The semiconductor selloff - Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund collapse - Robinhood - Leveraged investing - Michael's bull case for Floor & Decor - Josh's mystery chart
This episode sponsored by Janus Henderson Investors. Visit https://www.janushenderson.com/ for more information.
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
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