Leveraged ETF Casino, Apple Breaks Out, Sentiment Plunges, Government Stake in OpenAI?
July 7, 2026
AI Summary
5 min read“The only thing that matters here to the Apple shareholder is that Apple is the toll booth. They’re going to get paid coming and going, regardless of which AI the consumer wants to use.” That line, delivered by Josh Brown on a July episode of The Compound and Friends, captures the single most important shift in the Apple investment story. The hosts, Josh Brown and Michael Batnick, spent the episode walking through a dense, multi-topic market update that covered Apple’s breakout, the state of the AI trade, the collapse of consumer sentiment, and the growing influence of leveraged ETFs. The throughline is a market that is simultaneously strong and strange — driven by real earnings growth but increasingly shaped by speculative flows, algorithmic social media, and a handful of mega-cap narratives.
Apple’s Tollbooth Strategy
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:50) **Market Open & Apple Bull Case** - The hosts discuss the day's market action and then dive into a detailed bull case for Apple, arguing it is the mega-cap to watch in the second half of the year.
- 2 (23:23) **The Mini AI Unwind & Memory Stock Peak** - The hosts analyze the recent sell-off in semiconductor and memory stocks, questioning if it marks a top for the cycle.
- 3 (29:07) **Market Breadth & The Sentiment Disconnect** - The hosts discuss the positive market breadth despite the AI sell-off, and then analyze the historic disconnect between record-high stock prices and record-low consumer sentiment.
- 4 (40:40) **Index Methodology Distortions & The Bull Market's Magnitude** - The hosts highlight how index construction (value vs. growth, EM vs. DM) is creating massive performance dispersion, and then contextualize the current bull market's historic run.
- 5 (48:13) **The Leveraged ETF Casino** - The hosts examine the massive and growing role of leveraged ETFs in driving market structure and volatility.
- 6 (50:28) **Halo Trade Recap & Host Hotels Pitch** - The hosts revisit the "Halo Trade" (heavy assets, low obsolescence) as the trade of the year, and Michael pitches a specific stock: Host Hotels & Resorts (HST).
- 7 (57:46) **Mystery Chart & Dow Theory** - The hosts close with a mystery chart illustrating Dow Theory, showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average both making new highs.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
On this episode of What Are Your Thoughts, Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick discuss Apple's breakout to new highs and the bull case for a $400 price target, whether cracks are beginning to show in the AI trade after Samsung's earnings reaction, why consumer sentiment remains deeply pessimistic even as stocks keep climbing, the emerging markets ETF quirk that's rewarding some investors over others, whether we're witnessing one of the strongest earnings-driven bull markets in history, and why the HALO trade could continue to outperform in the second half of the year.
Plus, Michael makes the case for MAGS, Josh brings another mystery chart, and much more.
This episode is sponsored by Public. Learn more at: https://public.com/WAYT
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
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