Economic Data Deteriorates, Private Credit Struggles, Retail Traders Give Up

March 25, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Hosts Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick discuss a mix of weakening economic signals, housing stagnation, private credit strains, retail investor pullback, and emerging labor market challenges for college graduates, amid market rotations away from software stocks.

Deteriorating Economic Data

Recent indicators point to slowing growth. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q4 dropped from 5.4% in January to 0.7%. Private payrolls averaged 33,000 per month, with Jerome Powell noting near-zero job creation this year; excluding health care and social assistance, private payrolls declined. Manufacturing and retail jobs fell. Inflation shows odd patterns: producer prices up 3.5% year-over-year, driven by services (3.8%) rather than goods (2.5%). Consumer spending remains sluggish, pressured by higher gas prices, with retail sales flat. Hosts describe the economy as middling but trending worse, not recessionary yet—jobless claims stable, no surge in defaults—but directionally concerning despite rate cuts, fiscal stimulus, and AI activity. Earnings growth holds the S&P 500 back from deeper losses (down 7%).

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What you'll learn

1 (00:13) **Intro and Live Stream Setup** - Hosts Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick kick off with banter and sponsor skips
2 (02:56) **Economic Data Deterioration** - GDP nowcast drops to 0.7% from 5.4%, weak private payrolls, odd inflation splits
3 (06:39) **Consumer Spending Slump Debate** - Hosts argue economy "mid" vs "terrible" amid sluggish retail sales
4 (08:50) **Private Credit Red Flags** - Apollo gates 11% redemptions at 5%, FS KKR junk downgrade
5 (10:22) **Housing Market Frozen** - 30Y mortgage >6%, sales at 10Y lows, inventory rising from low demand
6 (18:16) **Mixed Economy Signals** - Jobless claims strong, card spending K-shaped, bankruptcies up
7 (19:00) **Retail Trader Retreat** - Citadel nets $12B from retail options; volumes off cliff from 15% peak

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Join ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about: the economy, HALO in private credit, college grad unemployment, a stock Michael is watching, and much more!

This episode is s sponsored by Betterment Advisor Solutions and ClearBridge Investments.

Learn more at https://betterment.com/advisors

Companies with physical assets, predictable cash flows and durable moats are well-positioned in a volatile, high‑valuation market. Learn more at https://www.clearbridge.com/

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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

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