The Compound and Friends
The Compound and Friends

Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else.

February 23, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

🎙️ The Voices & The Context

  • The Format: Structured interview with data-driven analysis, charts, and back-and-forth discussion on market trends.
  • The Key Players:
    • Nick Collis & Jessica Rabe: Co-founders of DataTrack Research, authors of a daily newsletter for 1,500+ clients; YouTube creators. Famous for sharp, chart-heavy insights on stocks and macro trends.
    • Host (Josh): Energetic facilitator who probes with tough questions, building rapport with returning guests.
  • The Vibe: Educational and intense, blending Wall Street math with urgent warnings—like a high-stakes boardroom debate on billions in AI bets.

🗝️ Key Themes & Topics

The episode dives into Big Tech's AI spending frenzy, questioning if hyperscalers like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta can justify it before investors bail. It contrasts U.S. dominance with rising non-U.S. stocks, urging a 12-month proof deadline.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (00:00) **🎙️ Introduction: Nick Collis & Jessica Rabe**
  • 2 (02:22) **Asset Efficiency Decline**
  • 3 (06:43) **Profitability Compression**
  • 4 (09:47) **Capex as % of Operating Cash Flow**
  • 5 (12:20) **Investor Choice: Big Tech vs. Rest of World**
  • 6 (14:27) **Index Concentration Differences**
  • 7 (16:13) **Recent Non-US Outperformance**

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

On this episode of What Did We Learn, Josh Brown sits down with Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research to discuss why Big Tech has just 12 months to prove AI is worth the cost.


Nick breaks down how Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms have dramatically shifted their business models pouring 100% (or more) of cash flow into AI capex as margins are set to decline in 2026. These three companies make up 11% of the S&P 500, and they are not the same high-margin machines they were just a few years ago.


Jessica then shows where investors are reallocating capital, comparing the S&P to the MSCI ACWI ex USA Index. With non-U.S. stocks gaining traction, investors have a clear choice: stick with Big Tech’s AI bet or look elsewhere. This episode is sponsored by Teucrium. Find out more at https://teucrium.com/agricultural-commodity-etfs

 

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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.


The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The info

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