AI Summary
5 min readBetting on OpenAI, SpaceX Dust Settles, Josh’s New Trade
SpaceX went public with only 3% of the company's shares hitting the market, raising $75 billion. The stock jumped 20% on day one, then another 15% the next day, and kept climbing. Within days, the company's market cap sat at roughly $2.6 trillion — bigger than Meta, bigger than Taiwan Semiconductor, knocking on Amazon's door. But as Michael Batnick put it bluntly: "It's not really $2.6 trillion." The valuation is a mathematical artifact of extreme share scarcity, and everyone knows the real test comes when the lockup expires and more shares flood the market.
The End of Stock Scarcity
The SpaceX IPO is the most visible symptom of a much larger structural shift in US equity markets that Josh Brown and Michael Batnick argue has not yet registered with most market participants. For roughly 15 years, a defining feature of the stock market was share scarcity — companies bought back $12 trillion in stock, equity issuance was minimal, and the relentless bid from passive flows chased a shrinking supply of shares. That era is over.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (05:52) **SpaceX IPO Reception** - Review of the IPO mechanics, pricing, and immediate market reaction
- 2 (08:17) **SpaceX Revenue vs Valuation Disconnect** - Debate on whether current pricing can be justified
- 3 (12:13) **SpaceX-Cursor Acquisition** - Details of the $60B all-stock deal and $10B breakup fee
- 4 (15:50) **Elon Musk Revenue Guidance Tweet** - Reaction to the $1T 2030 revenue target posted on X
- 5 (17:33) **American Capital Markets Strength** - Josh reads his weekend essay on U.S. investor risk appetite
- 6 (20:16) **End of Equity Scarcity Era** - Bloomberg data showing surge in new issuance after 12T in buybacks
- 7 (23:34) **OpenAI IPO Timing and SoftBank Proxy** - Filing of confidential S-1 and accelerated timeline
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
On this episode of What Are Your Thoughts, Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick are back to break down one of the biggest investing stories of the year: SpaceX joining the ranks of the world's most valuable companies. What does its rise say about American capitalism, private markets, and the role investors play in funding innovation?
They also dive into the best ways to invest in the AI boom, including the growing debate over OpenAI exposure and where the biggest opportunities may still lie. Plus, can AI-powered productivity gains coexist with rising layoffs and what does that mean for the economy?
Josh and Michael discuss whether traditional software is facing an existential threat, Nvidia’s massive bond sale, the escalating AI infrastructure spending race, and why Josh thinks Robinhood deserves a closer look.
This episode is sponsored by Public and ClearBridge Investments.
- To learn more about Public, visit https://public.com/WAYT
- Rising geopolitical tensions, continued market uncertainty, stocks backed by can offer more predictable cash flows as volatility increases. Visit https://www.clearbridge.com/ to learn more.
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
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