Josh Barro and Jonathan V. Last: The Patriotic Cowboys Wrecking Our Economy
October 1, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readThe Trump administration’s economic policies are producing a self-inflicted crisis that is now visible in energy prices, interest rates, and the president’s approval numbers. On The Bulwark Daily, Josh Barro and Jonathan V. Last walk through the mechanics of how the war in the Middle East, the breakdown of fiscal discipline, and the administration’s chaotic approach to monetary policy are combining to make the economy worse—and why the damage is likely to persist.
The Fed, the War, and the Bond Market
The conversation opens with a look at the Federal Reserve’s predicament. Inflation has remained stubbornly above the 2% target since the COVID recovery, and it worsened after the war began. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September, with three dissents at the July meeting—an unusually large number—signaling internal disagreement about how aggressive to be. Barro notes that the Fed’s job is to balance stable prices and maximum employment, and since the job market still looks solid, the case for further hikes is strong.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **Advertisements** - Two ad segments for Optimum Fiber and Corporate Traveler.
- 2 (00:45) **Intro and Tech Woes** - Tim Miller explains that Josh Barro's internet on Fire Island has cut out, so Jonathan V. Last (JVL) will join the show later.
- 3 (01:45) **Schadenfreude: Ethan Harper's Fall** - Tim and Josh celebrate the downfall of a Trump aide who held up the poster board in the Jack Smith "gotcha" incident.
- 4 (05:45) **Trump's Approval Rating Sinks Below "The Bush Line"** - An AP poll shows Trump at 31% approval, with 17% on cost of living, and the hosts gloat.
- 5 (09:03) **The Two-Story Economy: AI Boom vs. Fiscal Doom** - Josh explains why interest rates are rising globally despite a strong stock market.
- 6 (13:16) **Why People Hate the Economy Even With Low Unemployment** - Josh and Tim dissect the disconnect between macro data and consumer sentiment.
- 7 (16:32) **The Fed's Dilemma: Hawkish or Out of Control?** - Josh walks through the Fed's recent rate hike and the debate over future moves.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Show Notes
Finally, some accountability in Washington: Sen. Eric Schmitt’s general counsel and poster-holder is in career limbo after the infamous basketball mix-up in the Jack Smith hearing. And Americans seem to be holding Trump responsible for their economic frustrations—he’s below the Bush Line. Josh Barro explains: We’re not in a recession, but people feel stuck because borrowing costs are higher. Big budget deficits are inflationary, the president’s war of choice is making things worse, and our leaders don’t have a plan to deal with any of it. Plus, JVL explains why the markets are finally pricing in the risk of Trump’s war, and he and Tim discuss the weirdos running our government, Hegseth’s obsession with masculinity, and the importance of shame in a liberal democracy.
Josh Barro and Jonathan V. Last join Tim Miller.
show notes:
- Part one and part two of Tim’s list of Democrats who can win Red America
- TIME’s interview of Trump
- Subscribe to JVL’s Triad
- JVL on oil risk premiums
- Jodi Kantor for The New York Times on the public shaming of John Roberts
- Closing Song: The War on Drugs - Suffering
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