The Bulwark Daily
The Bulwark Daily

Jane Coaston: Pod Save Michigan

August 5, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Forever War in Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed Wins a Nail-Biter

The first week of August is supposed to be a dead zone for politics, but Tuesday night in Michigan delivered a primary that scrambled the expected narrative. Rashida Tlaib's former aide and public health advocate Abdul El-Sayed defeated incumbent Congresswoman Haley Stevens by roughly one point in the Democratic primary for Michigan's 7th Congressional District—a result that looked nothing like the double-digit blowout the polls had predicted. "Had the polls been showing Haley up and Abdul wins," Tim Miller observed, "it's kind of like, ooh, is there some weakness?" Instead, the polling miss itself became the story.

The Same Democratic Civil War, Ten Years Later

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What you'll learn

  • 1 The Bulwark Daily: Jane Coaston — Pod Save Michigan
  • 2 (00:12) **Opening & Guest Introduction** - Tim Miller explains the scramble to find a guest after a last-minute cancellation, landing Jane Coaston of Crooked Media's *What a Day* podcast
  • 3 (01:54) **Michigan Senate Primary Results: Abdul El-Sayed's Narrow Win** - The expected blowout for El-Sayed didn't materialize; he leads by roughly 1 point at taping time
  • 4 (05:37) **The Neverending Story: Bernie vs. Hillary Echoes** - Miller points out the Michigan primary results are nearly identical to the 2016 Bernie/Hillary split (Bernie +1.4 then, El-Sayed +1 now)
  • 5 (08:27) **Black Voters and the Countervailing Force** - Older Black voters in Wayne County provided Haley Stevens' strongest margins, breaking the progressive populist momentum
  • 6 (11:24) **Concerns About El-Sayed's General Election Prospects** - Miller lists three worries: underpolling (Michigan is hard to poll, but could there be a Bradley effect?), whether El-Sayed will court Alyssa Slotkin's voters, and potential opposition research
  • 7 (16:46) **Mike Rogers: A Weak Republican Opponent** - Miller argues that Mike Rogers is being evaluated through a 2010/2014 lens as a "normal" national security Republican, but lacks the talent to separate from Trump

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Guests on this episode

Tim Miller

Show Notes

The polling was way off, but suburban Dem voters in Michigan nonetheless showed that they’re sick of the party establishment and enraged by Trump, the war, the lies, and the corruption. AIPAC didn’t read the room. But party leaders are sounding united behind El-Sayed and Jane predicts he’ll bring a Mamdani-like energy to his campaign against Mike Rogers. Meanwhile, Republicans are sticking with sh*tbag Max Miller. Plus: Federal agents are threatening Americans for speaking out against ICE, Vance is always looking for a way to signal that he hates the war, and what other former podcast hosts can try to segue to elected office?

Jane Coaston joins Tim Miller.

show notes:

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