The Bulwark Daily
The Bulwark Daily

Dave Weigel: Polls Wrong, Hong Gone

August 12, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Polls Wrong, Hong Gone

The Wisconsin governor's primary delivered the biggest shock of the night: Francesca Hong, the left-wing Madison legislator who had been surging toward what looked like a historic nomination as a democratic socialist in a swing state, lost by roughly 4,000 votes to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. The result upended what had become the dominant political story of the Democratic primary season—and it was a story that Dave Weigel, the sleep-deprived politics reporter at Semafor, had seen coming.

What Happened in Wisconsin

Weigel had been in and out of Wisconsin for years, and he understood the stakes better than most. The entire project of Wisconsin Democrats, as he explained, has been about slowly gaining ground after Republicans swept the 2010 elections and locked in gerrymandered maps. The prize this year was a trifecta that would allow Democrats to redraw those maps. Hong entered this environment as a left-wing legislator from Madison—"the most left-wing part of that state, would be the most left-wing part of many states"—and ran a genuinely good campaign. She talked about data centers, raised taxes on the rich, expanded social programs, and did the kind of grassroots work that left-wing candidates often neglect.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:11) **Host Intro & Warning Signs from Trump’s Washington** - Tim Miller opens from D.C., describing National Guard troops and a tank near DuPont Circle as "fascism theater" from the Trump regime.
  • 2 (01:14) **Mailbag Preview** - Miller announces a mailbag episode for tomorrow and asks listeners to keep submissions short and fun for a better chance of being read.
  • 3 (02:30) **Nate Silver’s Opening Predictions** - Miller teases good news for Democrats from the first Nate Silver model for the House and Senate before diving into the day’s stories.
  • 4 (02:47) **Virginia ICE Traffic Stop Video** - Miller plays and describes a video flagged by Rep. Don Beyer showing masked ICE agents drawing a gun on a woman driver during a traffic stop.
  • 5 (05:17) **The Nation: A Family of Legal Residents Held in an ICE Camp** - Miller reads excerpts from a first-person account by a professor and legal permanent resident who, along with her husband and son, was detained by ICE and held for over 120 days.
  • 6 (09:12) **Guest Introduction: Dave Weigel on Wisconsin’s Shocker** - Miller brings in Dave Weigel of Semaphore to discuss the Wisconsin governor primary, where establishment favorite David Crowley beat progressive challenger Francesca Hong.
  • 7 (11:50) **Why Crowley Won: The Wisconsin Context** - Weigel explains the state’s swing-state history and the high stakes of the 2026 election for redistricting, which drove strategic voting among high-information Democrats.

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Guests on this episode

Dave Weigel

Show Notes

Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin didn’t care much for how hard Republicans were working to try to make democratic socialist Francesca Hong the Dems' nominee for governor. That whole strategy helped draw last night’s primary winner, David Crowley, back into the race three weeks ago. Maybe there is not a secret socialist vote in rural America, after all. Plus: the fallout from ICE on key Minnesota races, the Dems are still going to war against their gerontocracy, Nate Silver has some very encouraging polls, and Fetterman could use a Democratic friend. And Tim asks The Bulwark community to help a family of legal immigrants who are currently being held in one of the country’s new internment camps.

Dave Weigel joins Tim Miller.

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