The Bulwark Daily
The Bulwark Daily

Bill Kristol: A Blue Wave vs. the Toxic Red Tide

September 7, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Bill Kristol and Tim Miller open this Labor Day episode by looking ahead to the 2026 midterms and then spend most of the conversation comparing the current cycle to the two wave elections they know best: 2006 and 1994. The central argument is that 2026 looks far more like 2006 than 1994—a referendum on a second-term president whose approval rating has steadily declined, combined with a Republican Congress that has rubber-stamped his agenda—and that the scale of the Democratic wave may be underestimated by conventional prognosticators.

The 2026 forecast: why the wave may be bigger than the models show

Kristol says he has assumed a big Democratic year "for quite a while, based on nothing other than the obvious facts"—chiefly that Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen steadily since inauguration and that presidential approval is the best predictor of midterm outcomes when the incumbent's party controls Congress. As Trump escalated the Iran conflict, inflation stayed high, and gas prices rose, Kristol thinks a good year could become "a very good year."

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (02:11) **Setting the Table: 2026 Midterm Outlook** - Tim Miller and Bill Kristol open the episode by framing the conversation around the 2026 midterms before diving into historical comparisons.
  • 2 (08:46) **The Senate Map: A Narrow Path to a Real Majority** - Miller and Kristol dissect the challenging Senate playing field and the number of seats Democrats need to flip.
  • 3 (13:04) **Transition to 2006: The Wave That Grew in October** - The conversation pivots to the 2006 midterm as a historical parallel, focusing on how late-breaking events can expand a wave.
  • 4 (14:56) **2006 Races and the "Macaca" Moment** - Miller and Kristol recall specific Senate races from 2006 and the pivotal moment that doomed George Allen.
  • 5 (22:04) **The 2006 Timeline: Iraq, Katrina, and a Base Revolt** - Miller walks through the timeline of 2005-2006 to show how Bush's coalition fractured, creating the conditions for a wave.
  • 6 (33:42) **The Rumsfeld Dilemma and the "Grown-Up" Facade** - Kristol and Miller discuss the decision to keep Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense and how it symbolized a broader failure.
  • 7 (37:27) **1994: The End of an Era** - The discussion moves to the 1994 Republican wave, focusing on its unique historical context.

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Guests on this episode

Bill Kristol Tim Miller

Show Notes

With just under two months until Election Day, Tim and Bill revisit the run-up to the midterms in 2006 and 1994, two major wave election cycles where the bottom just fell out from under the party in power. The 1994 blowout was more about the end of an era, while 2006 was about an unpopular war in the Middle East, a scandal, and a disappointed base. What do those wave elections suggest about the prospects for a big blue year in 2026? Plus: Do not miss either the war stories from Tim as a young Republican operative on the campaign trail or Clinton blaming Bill for helping to tank his health care reform plan.

Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller for a special holiday pod.

show notes:

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