AI Summary
5 min readBen Rhodes, who served as deputy national security advisor under Barack Obama, joined The Bulwark Daily to assess a volatile global landscape. The conversation ranged from the risk of a wider war with Russia, to the strategic blunders of the Trump administration, to the internal fractures within the Democratic Party. Rhodes offered a sobering view of a world where the U.S. is running out of munitions, alienating allies, and ceding ground to China—all while the political class remains stuck in unproductive battles.
The Creeping Risk of a Wider European Conflict
Rhodes argued that the most immediate danger is not a full-scale World War III, but a "creeping violence into Europe." Drawing on conversations with European contacts, he outlined several scenarios Russia might pursue as it struggles with Ukraine's drone capabilities. One possibility is a direct attack on European soil—specifically, targeting factories in Germany that produce the drones and rockets hitting deep inside Russia. The Russian logic would be that if the West supplies weapons used to strike Moscow and St. Petersburg, then Russia has a right to strike the source.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (02:00) **Opening: Trump’s Chaos vs. Global Risks** - Ben Rhodes and Tim Miller contrast Trump’s trivial distractions (renaming lakes) with the disciplined, methodical approach of Canadian PM Mark Carney, setting the stage for a discussion of serious foreign policy dangers.
- 2 (03:30) **Rising Threat of a Wider European Conflict** - Miller connects dots between CIA visits to Moscow, depleted US weapons stocks, and NATO warnings, asking if this is the lead-up to a new, larger war.
- 3 (06:50) **Two Paths Not Taken in the Ukraine War** - Rhodes reflects on the Biden administration’s “middle option” strategy, arguing that both the all-in weapons approach and an earlier push for a negotiated settlement were viable roads not taken.
- 4 (09:10) **The Missed Opportunity of Ukrainian Drone Tech** - A story from March reveals the Trump administration dismissed Ukrainian offers to sell their advanced drone technology, a critical mistake that has implications for US force protection and future defense strategy.
- 5 (11:50) **China’s Long Game in a Fractured World Order** - Rhodes sees a Chinese-led world order as more likely now, as Trump’s erratic policies drive allies and swing states toward China, which offers stable, predictable deals.
- 6 (14:30) **How the Iran War is Pushing Swing States Away** - The US-Iran conflict is backfiring on American influence, as Gulf states like Kuwait find US bases make them a target, and South Korea re-evaluates its security alliance after Trump’s erratic moves.
- 7 (19:55) **The Case for a Negotiated, Not Dominated, World Order** - Rhodes challenges the “lefty” notion that a Chinese world order is fine, arguing for a US that negotiates new terms with China and others rather than trying to dominate or retreat.
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Show Notes
The wars in Iran and Ukraine are increasingly entangled, CIA Director John Ratcliffe had to personally deliver a message to Moscow, and Trump is driving our Gulf allies into the arms of China. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Israel relationship keeps mucking up our domestic politics, particularly in Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign in Michigan. But it also turns out that podcast host (and senator) Ted Cruz seems to be pocketing money from the state of Israel itself. Plus: Some Democrats have finally figured out how to deliver speeches again, Vance is always trying to turn himself into something he’s not, the DSA posters sound a lot like the Resistance 1.0, and Enes Kanter is still a POS.
Ben Rhodes joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod.
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