Ep. 2523 - Here’s the Real State of the Senate — Race by Race

October 9, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Senate Map Is Tighter Than the Headlines Suggest

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, and the dominant media narrative is that a Democratic tsunami is coming. But the polling averages tell a different story: nearly every major Senate race is within the margin of error. Ben Shapiro walks through the battleground states race by race, arguing that the "demoralization operation" designed to convince Republicans their defeat is inevitable may be more wishcasting than reality.

The Key Races

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by about 3.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average, but every recent poll is within the margin of error. Prediction markets give El-Sayed a 69% chance of winning, yet Shapiro notes that Michigan has a consistent pattern of Republicans outperforming final polling averages. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led by 3.4 points and lost the state by 0.3. In 2024, Kamala Harris led by half a point and lost by 1.4. Even El-Sayed's own primary this year had him up 10 points in the polling average; he won by one. "The Democrats are bringing Obama to Michigan for a reason," Shapiro says. "If you're well ahead, Barack Obama would not be descending on Michigan."

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What you'll learn

1 Episode Outline: Ep. 2523 – Here’s the Real State of the Senate — Race by Race
2 (02:35) **Republicans' Strongest Registration Position in 20 Years** - Shapiro opens by playing a clip about GOP party registration advantages, then argues a demoralization campaign is underway to suppress Republican turnout
3 (03:56) **Michigan Senate Race: El-Sayed vs. Rogers** - Detailed breakdown of the dead-heat race where Democrat El-Sayed leads by only 3.2 points in RCP average, with all recent polls within margin of error
4 (06:21) **Maine: Collins vs. Jackson** - Shapiro analyzes Susan Collins' race against Troy Jackson, calling Jackson a "gigantic weirdo" and noting Collins' history of outperforming polls
5 (07:44) **Texas: Cruz vs. Allred (2024 reference) and Talarico** - Shapiro examines the Texas Senate race where James Talarico leads by 2.8 points in RCP average, but recent polls show a dead heat
6 (10:50) **Iowa: Hinson vs. Turek** - Shapiro covers the dead-heat race where Turek leads by 0.7% in RCP average, with CNN showing Hinson up 2 and Suffolk showing Turek up 4
7 (12:36) **Alaska: Peltola vs. Sullivan** - Shapiro analyzes the race where Peltola leads by 1.2 points in RCP average, but all polls are within margin of error

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Ben Shapiro

Show Notes

We keep hearing that a Democratic tsunami will wipe out Republicans in the Senate... but that may be a demoralization op; Vice President Vance cracks down on Microsoft for immigration violations they may not have committed; and actor Sebastian Stan says a rational thing. Also, actor Gary Sinise joins the show to discuss his new book "Graceful Warrior" about his son Mac.

Ep. 2523

"Graceful Warrior: The True Story of a Son, a Father, and a Family Who Carried Each Other Through" will be released on November 10th. You can pre-order a copy here: https://a.co/d/0hltTeUg

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