Ep. 2386 - Can Iran Hit The US?

March 12, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The FBI warned police departments in early February 2026 that Iran aspired to launch a surprise drone attack from an unidentified vessel off the U.S. coast, targeting unspecified sites in California if American strikes continued. Ben Shapiro frames this and similar actions as the predictable final spasms of a weakening regime rather than evidence of renewed strength.

Last-gasp tactics in historical context

Shapiro compares Iran's current moves to earlier losing powers that intensified attacks as defeat neared. He cites the Battle of Okinawa, where over 12,000 Americans died and between 36,000 and 49,000 were wounded in the final months before Japan's surrender, and the Battle of the Bulge, Hitler's last major counteroffensive. Similar patterns appear in the 1991 Gulf War, when the Iraqi Hammurabi Republican Guard Division struck U.S. forces after a ceasefire, and in Afghanistan's Operation Anaconda in 2002. In each case, the losing side pulled every remaining lever before collapsing. Shapiro argues Iran's regime now follows the same pattern, using terror tactics across three fronts because its survival depends on forcing the United States and Israel to halt operations before irreversible damage occurs.

Homeland threats and border vulnerabilities

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Iran's Last Stand: The Dying Throes of a Snake** - Shapiro frames the current Iranian attacks as a desperate final push by a collapsing regime, comparing it to the Battle of Okinawa and the Battle of the Bulge.
2 (03:18) **Threat to the US Homeland: Iranian Drone Plot** - The FBI warns of a potential Iranian drone attack from a vessel off the coast of California, exploiting border vulnerabilities.
3 (09:35) **Strait of Hormuz: Iran's Economic Warfare** - Iran attacks oil tankers to pressure global markets, but Shapiro argues leaving the regime in place is worse.
4 (12:34) **Terror Against Allies: Iran's Asymmetric Strategy** - Iran targets Gulf states (UAE, Saudi, Kuwait) more than Israel to pressure them into inaction, while Hezbollah launches rockets from Lebanon.
5 (15:18) **The Goal: Finishing the Job** - Shapiro argues that only the collapse of the Iranian regime will bring lasting victory, and President Trump must finish the job to end the missile, nuclear, and terror threats.
6 (17:56) **Assessing the Regime's Collapse** - Contradictory reports: a leaked US intelligence report says Iran's leadership is intact, while Iran International reports acute supply shortages, desertions, and low morale.
7 (21:31) **Path to Victory: Three Options** - Shapiro outlines three strategies to finish the war: seize Iran's oil facilities on Kharg Island, facilitate a ground uprising by arming Iranian minorities, or bomb until the regime collapses.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Scary headlines dominate the news as the Iranian government makes its final stand: attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, possible drone attacks in California, and a botched attack on an Iranian girls’ school. So, are we really losing?

Ep. 2386

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