Ten31 Timestamp: Gilt Trip

October 5, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Ten31 Timestamp: Gilt Trip

The hosts return from their portfolio company retreat in Utah to a week that delivered on several themes they've been tracking for months. Middle East crude flows have normalized to roughly pre-war levels, a development that contradicts the more apocalyptic narratives that dominated social media. But the refined products chart tells a different story — those flows remain about 40% below normal, which keeps pressure on diesel supplies and industrial economies. The hosts frame this as a Rorschach test where you can see what you want, but the real story is in the tension between the two charts.

The Great Game Shifts

The most consequential development of the week may be the emerging US-China alignment on Iran. Out of the Trump-Xi meeting came an eight-point statement where China agreed that "no country or institution can be allowed to impose tolls on international waterways" — the first official Chinese statement leaning toward the US position on Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This pairs with reports that China may have stopped sharing satellite imagery with Iran, and a New York Times headline acknowledging meaningful domestic disruptions inside Iran. The hosts note that Iran's main sponsor appears to be pulling back at the worst possible moment, with its list of allies growing thin.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:01) **Episode Opening & Recap** - The hosts return from a week off at the Ten31 portfolio company retreat in Utah, noting that a major story they've been covering "popped off" while they were away.
2 (01:10) **Middle East Oil Flows: A Rorschach Test** - The hosts analyze two key charts: crude flows (returning to pre-war levels) and refined product flows (still ~40% below normal).
3 (06:37) **Shipping Costs & The Tanker Chart** - The hosts highlight a chart of supertanker shipping costs that looks like a "2017 ICO shitcoin chart," suggesting a blow-off top and an imminent correction.
4 (07:06) **The US-China-Iran Triangle** - The hosts discuss a new eight-point statement from the G-Trump meeting where China publicly agreed that Iran should not develop nuclear weapons and that no country should impose tolls on international waterways.
5 (10:09) **European Bond Chaos** - In parallel with the Iran situation, bond yields are blowing out in Europe, with the spread between French and German bonds widening dramatically.
6 (10:43) **Rare Earth Minerals & US Reindustrialization** - The hosts highlight a Wall Street Journal chart showing the US is "moving in the right direction" on creating a China-free supply chain for critical minerals.
7 (13:26) **The Bond Market Constraint: MOVE Index Spikes** - The hosts return to their favorite chart: the US 10-year Treasury yield juxtaposed with the MOVE index (bond volatility), which has finally ripped out of its range to levels not seen since the "tariff tantrum of 2025."

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Show Notes

Oil flows through the Middle East are back near pre-war levels, but 10 year yields and the MOVE index are telling a different story.

🔗 https://bitcoinproducts.com

In this episode:

Why Middle East crude flows are back to pre-war levels while diesel and refined products still lag
What the US and China statement on Iran and Hormuz tolls signals
How the push for a China-free rare earth supply chain is going
Why the MOVE index and French bond spreads are blowing out
How stablecoins and Treasury bills could change what a dollar is
Why Trump's comments on inflation and the debt point toward Bitcoin

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 - Back from the Ten31 portfolio retreat

00:00:47 - Middle East crude flows return to pre-war levels

00:03:19 - Diesel and refined products still lagging

00:04:25 - Tanker costs and Hormuz workarounds

00:07:06 - US and China statement on Iran and Hormuz tolls

00:10:41 - Rare earths and the China-free supply chain

00:12:31 - Jamie Dimon calls for industrial policy

00:13:32 - 10 year yield and the MOVE index breakout

00:17:23 - Weak Treasury auctions and Judy Shelton

00:18:08 - France and Germany bond spread blowing out

00:22:08 - White House and the frontier AI labs