Ten31 Timestamp: DRAM Rules Everything Around Me

June 29, 2026

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5 min read

Ten31 Timestamp: DRAM Rules Everything Around Me

The episode opens with a familiar exhaustion: the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz ping-pongs between headlines—war on, war off, peace deal made, peace deal rescinded—all in the span of a weekend. The hosts note that an oil analyst previously on the show has argued it's in neither party's interest to actually resolve things, so we may be "eternally doomed" to the cycle. But directionally, they see developments tracking in the US's favor, and they point to WTI crude at $70.50, still well below the highs from when the conflict first escalated. The oil market's muted reaction suggests the stalemate may be less disruptive than many feared.

The Bessent Doctrine and Supply Chain Statecraft

The centerpiece of the episode is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's speech at the Economic Club of New York, titled "Economic Statecraft." The hosts treat it as a validation of themes they've been tracking for over a year. Bessent's focus is rearchitecting supply chains to address vulnerabilities exposed by COVID, cyber attacks, and "fan shock"—but the critical question he raises goes deeper: can supply chains withstand coercion, and do they depend on countries that could use economic leverage against the US?

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Geopolitical Headline Chaos** - The hosts open by lamenting the whiplash of war/peace headlines regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, framing it as increasingly low-signal noise.
2 (02:20) **Treasury Secretary Bessent's Supply Chain Speech** - Scott Bessent's speech at the Economic Club of New York is analyzed as a validation of the show's long-standing thesis on rearchitecting supply chains.
3 (08:56) **Dollar Dominance & Iran Oil Waivers** - Despite geopolitical fracturing, the dollar remains strong, driven by AI capital inflows. A new 60-day waiver allows Iran to sell oil in USD.
4 (13:00) **Geopolitical Continuity Across Administrations** - The hosts debate whether a future Democratic administration would reverse Trump's aggressive dollar-centric policies.
5 (15:24) **Consumer Electronics Inflation vs. Oil Relief** - A new trend of rising prices for computer software/accessories is juxtaposed against falling oil prices, creating a mixed inflation picture for consumers.
6 (20:07) **Frontier AI Model Regulation & National Security** - The US administration is increasingly intervening in frontier model releases (e.g., Fable Five), treating advanced AI as a weapon.
7 (26:43) **Open Source vs. Frontier Models Debate** - The hosts discuss whether open-weight models can catch up to frontier labs, given the massive CapEx required for training.

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Show Notes

The Iran deal is back on again and off again, but oil is not buying it. Marty and John sift through the weekend headline chaos to focus on what actually matters: WTI near seventy dollars and the dollar index back above one hundred. They break down Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's speech on economic statecraft, why reshoring critical supply chains is moving from PowerPoint to plant openings, and how Iran's oil sanctions waivers are really a dollar dominance play. They also dig into the AI-driven memory shortage that is ending consumer electronics deflation, the administration's crackdown on frontier model releases, and why Apollo's seventeen percent withdrawal requests are a warning shot for private credit. To close, they look at Strategy's preferred share depeg, Bitcoin scraping fifty-eight thousand, and BlackRock's quiet reiteration that every portfolio needs one to two percent allocated to BTC.

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