TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

#779: SPR Releases Fix Nothing with Anas Alhajji

August 3, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In early 2025, the global energy system is not just under pressure—it is experiencing a simultaneous crisis across four major seas, with fifteen distinct bullish events for oil and gas all happening at once. Dr. Anas Alhajji returns to TFTC to explain why the conventional narrative about the SPR releases, oil prices, and the Iran conflict is dangerously wrong, and why the real story is about a coordinated global energy realignment that most analysts are missing.

The Four Seas Crisis and the Fog of War

The conflict that began between the US, Israel, and Iran has metastasized into a multi-front energy war. The Gulf, the Red Sea, the Black Sea, and now the Mediterranean are all experiencing disruptions. The Houthis are attacking Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Ukraine is halting Kazakhstan's oil exports—1.4 million barrels per day lost, with no US senator or congressman saying a word. An attack on Egypt's LNG terminal and two American regasification units near the Suez Canal raises the question: was this a message that the canal itself could be closed?

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:47) **Iran's Regime is Not a Monolith** - Alhajji explains the critical internal division between IRGC extremists who profit from sanctions and negotiators who want peace.
  • 2 (06:43) **The War is About Global Energy Dominance, Not Just Iran's Nukes** - Alhajji reframes the conflict as part of a larger US strategy to control global energy routes and displace rivals.
  • 3 (13:05) **The SPR Releases: Biden's Smartest Move, Trump's Misguided One** - Alhajji contrasts the two administrations' use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, arguing the market's real crisis was in products, not crude.
  • 4 (16:59) **The Diesel Crisis: How Lost Refineries and Hoarding Broke the Market** - Alhajji traces the chain reaction from blocked Gulf refineries to global panic and diverted shipments.
  • 5 (21:09) **The Four Seas Crisis and the Kazakhstan Blackout** - Alhajji identifies four simultaneous maritime choke points and a massive, ignored supply loss from Kazakhstan.
  • 6 (25:15) **The "Obsession Crisis": How Oil Bulls Fooled Themselves** - Alhajji warns that investors' emotional attachment to a $150 oil narrative made them vulnerable to misinformation.
  • 7 (28:21) **The Physical Constraint: Saudi Arabia's Impossible Shipping Puzzle** - Alhajji explains why even the most creative logistical workaround cannot solve the fundamental shipping shortage.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Energy economist Anas Alhajji breaks down the Iran war's impact on global oil markets, Hormuz shipping risks, and diesel shortages driving inflation. He exposes demand destruction, SPR manipulation myths, and why LNG dominates the energy security chessboard. Alhajji reveals how sanctions, trade wars, and AI data centers are reshaping macro policy, commodity prices, and dollar hegemony. From Saudi export bottlenecks to European deindustrialization, this deep dive connects crude volatility to monetary policy, Bitcoin macro, and the national security case for natural gas.

Anas on X: https://x.com/anasalhajji

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