#739: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

Matthew Mežinskis provides a quarterly update on global monetary base trends and Bitcoin's performance, analyzing its power law growth against gold, central bank balance sheets, and traditional finance. He emphasizes statistical trends from charts, highlighting Bitcoin's distinct trajectory amid recent volatility and geopolitical shifts.

Bitcoin's Power Law Growth

Bitcoin follows a power law on a log-linear dollar price chart, with an R-squared fit of 96%, unlike the straight-line exponential growth of assets like gold (5.3% CAGR since 1971) or stocks. In this model, every 13% increase in Bitcoin's age (about 800 days or 2+ years) roughly doubles its price, yielding a current 40% CAGR that slows over time—projected to 30% by 2031, 20% by 2041, and 10% by 2070. Mežinskis notes power laws describe network and city growth, rare in finance, with Bitcoin showing positive skew: more upside volatility, stable downside bounces from the 0% quantile bound (low 60,000s USD recently). Quantile regressions provide support levels; currently, Bitcoin sits near the 10th percentile, signaling undervaluation 90% of the time historically.