#720 Global Liquidity Has Peaked with Michael Howell

February 25, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

🎙️ The Voices & The Context

The Format: Expert interview on macroeconomics and markets, with host sharing slides and data visuals for deep analysis.
The Key Players:
- Guest: Michael Howell, founder of Cross Border Capital (35+ years tracking global liquidity), creator of the widely cited Global Liquidity Index (GLI), and author of the Capital Wars Substack—renowned for spotting liquidity trends ahead of asset moves.
- Host: Marty Bent (TFTC host), probing with Bitcoin focus and policy insights, fostering sharp back-and-forth.
The Vibe: Educational and intense, blending data-driven macro wisdom with Bitcoin optimism amid liquidity warnings—think high-signal finance nerd-out.

🗝️ Key Themes & Topics

The episode dives into global liquidity peaking, its drag on risk assets like Bitcoin, China's gold push, and looming debt refinancing crises, framing short-term downside vs. long-term bull cases.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **🎙️ Introduction: Michael Howell**
2 (01:40) **Global Liquidity Overview**
3 (03:49) **Countervailing Liquidity Forces**
4 (05:42) **Fed Repo Fixes and Main Street Flows**
5 (08:30) **Commercial Banks vs. Fed Liquidity**
6 (12:21) **Bitcoin as Liquidity Canary**
7 (14:09) **Asset Allocation Cycle and Rotation**

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Marty sits down with Michael Howell, founder of Cross Border Capital, to discuss the state of global liquidity, its impact on Bitcoin and risk assets, and what the current cycle peak means for investors navigating the road ahead.

CrossBorderCapital: https://x.com/crossbordercap

Capital Wars: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

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