How predictions took over our lives

In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on sports gambling. By 2024, Americans were spending over $100 billion annually on sports bets, 95% of it online. That shift has quietly transformed not just how people watch a game, but how they experience uncertainty, prediction, and control in their daily lives. This episode of the TED Radio Hour examines the explosion of prediction markets and AI forecasting, and asks what it costs when we turn everything—from corner kicks to job applications—into a wager.

The Corner Kick Problem: When Betting Replaces Fandom

Brendan Dwyer, a professor of sports leadership at Virginia Commonwealth University, saw the change firsthand during the 2022 FIFA World Cup. His students were huddled around a laptop, screaming at the screen during a match between Morocco and Belgium. They weren't fans of either team. They had bet on the number of corner kicks. When Dwyer asked why, one student explained they had taken the "over." They won the bet, but when he later asked them who won the game, they didn't know. (Morocco, 2-0.)