Selects: What's the deal with swing states?

October 10, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the 1992 election, Bill Clinton flipped nine states that had voted Republican in every single presidential election since 1966—a stretch of 21 years. Among those flipped states were California, Illinois, New Jersey, and Vermont, none of which have voted Republican since. The episode explores why a handful of states get all the attention during presidential elections, how the Electoral College creates them, and what it means for voters who live everywhere else.

What makes a state "swing"

A swing state, also called a battleground state, is not simply a state that is closely divided politically. As Josh explains, it is a state where "there are enough people who can be persuaded to change who they vote for that it can make a state go one way or the other." The margin can come down to thousands or even hundreds of votes. The Brookings Institution estimates that 75% or more of presidential candidate spending occurs in these states—on ads, robocalls, and social media buys—because that is where the election can actually be decided.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:50) **Episode Introduction & Context** - Host Chuck introduces the episode, recorded October 6, 2020, explaining that swing states are the topic because it's election season.
2 (02:32) **Defining a Swing State** - Josh and Chuck give the core definition: a state so closely divided it could go either way in a presidential election.
3 (06:49) **Electoral College Refresher** - The hosts explain America's indirect system of electing the president, which is the foundation for why swing states exist.
4 (11:00) **The Creation of Safe States** - The Electoral College doesn't just create swing states; it also creates "safe states" that are reliably partisan.
5 (12:39) **The History of Red States vs. Blue States** - A fascinating sidebar on how the colors for political parties became locked in, and the problems this creates.
6 (21:45) **How Swing States Have Swung: 1992 & 2016** - Two watershed elections that completely reshaped the electoral map and redefined which states are in play.
7 (26:42) **What Makes a State Swing?** - The hosts break down the demographic and geographic factors that determine if a state is a battleground.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Swing states are all the rage once again this election season, but the makeup has changed a bit. In this classic episode, learn all about what makes a swing state a swing state right now.

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