Has the Ceasefire Shattered?

The U.S. and Iran traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, just hours after President Trump announced a new military operation to break Iran’s control over the critical waterway. The U.S. military said it shot down all Iranian cruise missiles and sank six Iranian gunboats, while Iran also struck a U.S. partner in the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates. By late Monday, the ceasefire that had held for weeks appeared to be fraying but not yet shattered—leaving the region in a precarious limbo.

The Strait of Hormuz operation and the Iranian response

Late Sunday, President Trump announced “Project Freedom” on social media, a plan to create conditions for commercial vessels—especially those from neutral countries—to transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian interference. Within hours, two U.S.-flagged commercial ships made the crossing from the Persian Gulf eastward, and U.S. warships moved into the area to establish a more aggressive posture. The message was clear: the U.S. was trying to force Iran’s hand and break its long-standing leverage over the strait, through which a significant share of the world’s oil passes.