Summer Playlist 2026 Episode 3 | Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten & Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack

July 25, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Strait of Hormuz crisis revealed a surprising shock absorber: China

When the Strait of Hormuz was closed, knocking out 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products, many expected oil to spike to $150–200 a barrel. Brent did hit $120 in May 2026, then sold off to $70 after a ceasefire announcement, and climbed back toward $100 when hostilities resumed. But the price never reached the catastrophic levels many feared. The biggest reason, according to Arjun Murti, was something almost no one anticipated: China slashed its crude imports by four to six million barrels a day.

The China surprise

Murti, a partner at Veriten and former Goldman Sachs analyst who co-authored the famous "super spike" thesis in the 2000s, breaks down the math. Of the 15 million barrels a day of crude disrupted by the Strait closure, about five million were redirected from Saudi Arabia and the UAE—expected. Another two to three million came from strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) drawdowns in the US, Japan, and other countries, plus higher US exports—also in the expected category. The surprise was China, whose crude imports fell more than 40% in June, to their lowest level in a decade.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Welcome & The Strait of Hormuz Surprise** - Host Dave Greeley introduces Arjun Murti to discuss lessons from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of a super spike.
2 (05:16) **China's Import Reduction: Sustainable or Temporary?** - Murti analyzes whether China's 20% import cut is a permanent demand shift or a temporary inventory draw.
3 (07:26) **The Super Spike Risk: Definitions & Mechanics** - Murti distinguishes a "super spike" (multi-year demand-driven upturn) from a short-term geopolitical spike that could trigger a recession.
4 (11:10) **The Refining Shock: A New Variable** - Murti explains that the refining sector, not just crude, is a critical driver of demand destruction.
5 (13:26) **Where is the Balancing Point Today?** - Murti contrasts how developed vs. developing economies absorb energy pain, shifting the balancing point to Asia.
6 (16:27) **China's "All of the Above" Energy Strategy** - Murti explains China's energy security-driven approach, which includes EVs, renewables, coal, and a massive SPR.
7 (20:10) **The Long Road to Behavioral Change** - Murti argues that a few months of crisis is nowhere near enough to drive lasting energy efficiency gains.

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Show Notes

This week on our Summer Playlist, we welcome Arjun Murti back into the SmarterMarkets™ studio. Arjun is Partner at Veriten and Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss the lessons learned from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of a super spike should the conflict continue, and the key themes he'll be following in the second half of 2026.