Summer Playlist 2026 Episode 1 | Samantha Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research, Goldman Sachs

In June 2026, China cut its crude oil imports by roughly five million barrels a day compared to the prior year — an extraordinary drop that helped rebalance global markets during the Strait of Hormuz disruption. But as Samantha Dart, co-head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, explains, that headline number masks a more complicated story. The crude market is showing surprising flexibility, but refined products and natural gas face deeper structural problems that could keep inflation stickier than crude prices alone would suggest.

Crude vs. products: a market divergence

The Strait of Hormuz conflict has created a split between crude oil and refined products that many observers have missed. Crude flows have proven more resilient than expected. Saudi Arabia and the UAE redirected oil through pipeline capacity, China slashed imports through a combination of demand destruction and destocking, and by June global visible crude inventories began rebuilding. The crude market looks manageable heading into next year, with supply growth from Brazil, Guyana, and even a modest US rig count pickup.