How much worse was that storm because of climate change?

August 27, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

For years, scientists would say they could not pin a single storm or heatwave on climate change. That has changed. A growing field called attribution science now puts a number on exactly how much more intense or likely a particular extreme event has become because of a warming planet. Dr. Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist with the World Weather Attribution Consortium and the Kenya Meteorological Services, explains how this works and why it matters for adaptation, litigation, and accountability.

How attribution science works

Attribution science compares the weather of today with the weather of a world without industrial emissions. The method starts by establishing the "climatology" — the normal rainfall or temperature — for a given location. When an extreme event occurs, like the recent West African floods that killed roughly 59 people in Abidjan and another 26 in Lagos, scientists first confirm the event was rare and beyond normal variation.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:48) **Defining Attribution Science** - Joyce Kimutai explains the core question of the field: is climate change to blame for an extreme event, and to what extent?
2 (03:12) **The Attribution Method: Comparing Two Worlds** - Kimutai outlines the step-by-step process using the West African floods as an example.
3 (05:30) **Why Attribution Science Matters** - Kimutai explains her personal motivation for working in this societally relevant field.
4 (06:23) **Where Attribution Science Has Its Biggest Impact** - Kimutai identifies the key areas where this science is making a difference.
5 (08:08) **From Science to Accountability: The Legal Perspective** - Host Flora introduces Maxine Burquette, a law professor who thinks about the consequences of linking emissions to harm.
6 (09:43) **Scales of Legal Action** - Burquette explains that lawsuits can target companies, entire industries, or even countries.
7 (10:37) **A Real-World Case: Multnomah County** - Burquette gives a concrete example of attribution science being used in current litigation.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

We’ve been hearing for years that climate change makes weather more extreme, and extreme weather more frequent. But what’s been more difficult to measure is exactly how climate change influences a particular weather event. For example, how much more intense was Hurricane Lala because of climate change? How much more deadly were India’s heat waves this summer? A growing field called attribution science is trying to answer questions like these.

Flora chats with climate scientist Joyce Kimutai about the field and why it's so important. Then, we hear from climate law expert Maxine Burkett about how attribution science could be used in policy, and in the courtroom, to hold emitters responsible.

Guests:

Dr. Joyce Kimutai is a climate scientist specializing in attribution science. She works for the World Weather Attribution Consortium at Imperial College London and is the principal climate scientist for the Kenya Meteorological Services.

Maxine Burkett is a professor of climate, environment, and society at Stanford University in California.

Transcript will be available after the show airs on sciencefriday.com.

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