Prof G Markets
Prof G Markets

Why Elon Might Merge Tesla And SpaceX

October 22, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Why Elon Might Merge Tesla and SpaceX

Tesla's third-quarter earnings were largely flat, with automotive revenue and deliveries declining year over year. But the number that caught the market's attention had nothing to do with the financials: Elon Musk confirmed that special committees at both Tesla and SpaceX are evaluating a potential merger between the two companies. For investors trying to understand whether Tesla's stock—trading at over 300 times earnings while the rest of the auto industry trades at roughly 17 times—can justify its valuation, the merger question matters far more than the quarterly numbers.

The Car Business Is Still Paying the Bills—Barely

Karim Buster, former vice president at Tesla and now co-founder of DVX Ventures, walked through what the earnings actually reveal. The headline numbers were unsurprising: deliveries had already been reported lower, and revenue was flat. But two metrics stood out. Free cash flow came in at $1.5 billion, a significant improvement from the prior quarter. And automotive gross margins improved by two percentage points, driven by execution rather than discounting.

Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.

Read Full Summary →

Free • No credit card required

What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:44) **Show Open & Market Vitals** - Ed Elson introduces the episode and recaps the prior day's market moves, including a rally in SpaceX and Tesla shares.
  • 2 (02:33) **Tesla Q3 Earnings: The Car Business is Paying the Bills, Barely** - Ed and guest Karim Bousta break down Tesla's Q3 results, noting flat revenue and a struggling auto business, but a bright spot in free cash flow.
  • 3 (03:30) **Why Margins Improved Despite Declining Deliveries** - Karim attributes improved gross margins and free cash flow to strong execution, not demand, but questions whether it's enough to justify the valuation.
  • 4 (06:10) **The Robotaxi and Optimus: The Real Moonshots Need to Show Progress** - Karim agrees with Ed's skepticism and explains that the next big question is whether the robotaxi and Optimus projects can start meeting concrete milestones.
  • 5 (09:56) **The Big News: A Potential Tesla-SpaceX Merger** - Ed pivots to Elon Musk's confirmation that special committees are evaluating a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX, asking Karim for his take.
  • 6 (12:34) **Is the Merger a Play for Talent and Brand?** - Ed theorizes that the merger is a way for Elon to inject SpaceX's "sexy" brand value into Tesla to attract top talent and distract investors from the struggling car business.
  • 7 (15:18) **Is It a Good Idea? The Verdict Depends on the Deal** - Karim says whether the merger is a good idea depends on the specifics of the deal, but it doesn't change the hard work Tesla still has to do in the physical world.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Ed Elson is joined by Karim Bousta to give his takeaways from Tesla’s earnings and what he makes of the news that SpaceX and Tesla might merge. Then, Mark Mahaney returns to break down Meta’s earnings. Finally, Ed explains why he’s bearish on Netflix. 

Karim Bousta is the Co-Founder and Managing Partner at DVx Ventures and former Vice President at both Tesla and Lyft. Mark Mahaney is the senior managing director at Evercore.

Subscribe to the Prof G Markets Youtube Channel 

Follow Prof G Markets here:

Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack

Follow Scott on Instagram

Send us your questions or comments by emailing [email protected]


Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Prof G Markets

More from this podcast

Prof G Markets →