Prof G Markets
Prof G Markets

Why Britain’s Economy Has Been Stuck For 20 Years

June 23, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In 2026, Britain will appoint its seventh prime minister in a decade, a turnover rate unmatched in nearly 200 years. The proximate cause is Keir Starmer, who won a landslide Labour victory in 2024 but became deeply unpopular within months — partly because he broke manifesto promises by cutting pensioner benefits and raising taxes, partly because of personnel scandals (Peter Mandelson’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein), and partly because, as economist Paul Johnson puts it, Starmer is a “decent, hard-working, honourable man” who simply “failed to connect with the electorate.” But the deeper explanation is simpler and grimmer: Britons are not feeling well off, and they have not felt well off for a very long time.

Two Decades of Stagnant Earnings

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (02:06) **Episode Introduction & Market Vitals** - Ed Elson opens the show with a market recap: S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell, Google shares dropped 5%, and the Russell 2000 hit a new high.
  • 2 (02:47) **The UK’s Political Turmoil: Seventh PM in 10 Years** - Keir Starmer steps down after losing his party’s confidence; Andy Burnham is the likely successor.
  • 3 (03:39) **Interview Begins: Paul Johnson, Economist at Oxford** - Guest introduction and first question: what went wrong for Starmer and the UK?
  • 4 (05:53) **Systemic vs. Leadership Failures** - Johnson argues the problem is both poor leaders and deep structural issues.
  • 5 (08:06) **Core Economic Diagnosis: The Growth Crisis** - The biggest problem is a lack of productivity growth, worsened by the financial crisis, Brexit, and poor policy.
  • 6 (09:06) **Who Is Andy Burnham? The Next PM’s Unknown Agenda** - Burnham is likely to become PM quickly, but his economic plans are unclear.
  • 7 (11:29) **Is There a Technocratic Consensus for Recovery?** - Johnson says economists agree on solutions, but politicians avoid them because they’re electorally unpopular.

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Guests on this episode

Show Notes

Ed Elson is joined by Paul Johnson to discuss why Keir Starmer stepped down as Prime Minister and what his resignation reveals about the deeper challenges facing the U.K. economy. Then, Brian Kersmanc breaks down how markets are responding to the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations and what they signal for oil prices. Finally, Ed explains why the U.K.'s struggles may offer a cautionary lesson for other economies.

Paul Johnson is an economist and Provost of The Queen's College at Oxford. Brian Kersmanc is a Portfolio Manager at GQG Partners.

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