What you'll learn

• 1 (02:01) **Episode Open & Market Vitals** - Ed Elson introduces the show and recaps yesterday's market data, including a better-than-expected inflation report and IBM's record plunge.
• 2 (02:39) **Inflation Data & The Iran Oil Question** - Ed frames the core tension: inflation cooled to 3.5% in June, but the drop was driven by lower energy prices tied to a now-broken Iran ceasefire.
• 3 (03:33) **Interview: Mark Zandi on "Sticky" Underlying Inflation** - Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, explains that while headline inflation eased, the underlying rate (abstracting from energy swings) remains at an "uncomfortably high" 3-3.5%.
• 4 (06:50) **Causes of Sticky Inflation: AI, Immigration, and War** - Zandi identifies structural forces keeping inflation elevated, predicting it could take 2-3 years to return to the Fed's 2% target.
• 5 (07:45) **The Labor Market as the Key Deflationary Force** - Zandi explains that the softening job market is the most important driver bringing inflation down, though the process takes years.
• 6 (08:24) **Why U.S. Inflation is Highest in the G7** - Zandi compares the U.S. to peers, noting that other countries subsidize energy, while the U.S. lets price spikes pass through immediately.
• 7 (10:41) **The Hawkish Fed: Powell's "Mission Not Accomplished" Stance** - Zandi analyzes Fed Chair Powell's surprisingly hawkish tone, which has convinced bond markets of his seriousness about price stability.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app