What Wall Street Got Wrong About Iran

On July 9th, the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran collapsed after just 22 days. Iran attacked three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the US struck over 80 targets along Iran's coast, and Brent crude surged over 7% to nearly $80 a barrel. President Trump declared the deal over, calling Iranian leaders "scum." But according to Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, the real story is that there never was a deal to begin with—only a performance of one.

The Problem with "Performative Diplomacy"

Katulis argues that President Trump does not engage in traditional diplomacy aimed at building trust and securing durable agreements. Instead, he practices what Katulis calls "performative diplomacy"—using aggressive rhetoric and "troll power" to get what he wants, often coming up empty-handed. The 22-day-old memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran was a prime example. It was signed without consulting key regional stakeholders, including Gulf Arab countries that are directly affected by the conflict. Except for Qatar, these partners were not brought into the process in a serious way. Because they live in the region, suffer the economic consequences, and are both oil producers and global investors, their exclusion meant the MOU lacked a sustainable framework. The result was a deal that looked good on paper but had no real foundation—a "performative" agr