Two Months In: Why Markets Stopped Caring About Iran

This episode of Prof G Markets, hosted by Scott Galloway and Ed, dissects why stock markets have surged two months into the U.S.-Iran war—despite Brent crude above $103 a barrel and no genuine ceasefire—in a shift from initial fears of economic disruption. The hosts attribute this to a U.S.-led transition to a tech- and services-dominated economy, where strong corporate earnings, especially in AI, outweigh oil volatility. They contrast this resilience with lingering risks from prolonged conflict, while touching on CEO legacies and a dubious SpaceX deal.

Stock Rallies Defy War Escalation

Since President Trump's "ceasefire" announcement on February 28—despite ongoing incidents like Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Navy responses, and mutual violations—U.S. indexes have climbed sharply: Dow up 6%, S&P 500 up 8%, Nasdaq up 12%. Global markets followed: Europe +3%, Germany +4%, China and India +5%, Japan +10%, Taiwan +15%, Israel +9%. Oil prices remain volatile and 35% higher in the U.S., yet every sector's earnings estimates rose since the war began, with tech seeing the largest historical increase. Backward-looking data shows stable consumer spending, as confirmed by bank earnings like Capital One's, even as sentiment hits record lows.