The Iran “Deal” Isn’t What It Seems

In the summer of 2024, the US and Iran announced yet another agreement. This time, the headlines said a ceasefire was in place, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, and a formal signing was set for Geneva. Oil prices dropped five percent in a single day. But Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, was blunt: "I'm not gonna try to disabuse you of your skepticism because I share it." The so-called deal was less a resolution than a dangerous pause, with the most explosive questions deliberately kicked down the road.

A "Memorandum of Misunderstanding"

The core problem is that the US and Iran cannot agree on what they just agreed to. Sadjadpour calls the supposed memorandum of understanding a "memorandum of misunderstanding." The US version of the terms is radically different from the Iranian version on virtually every major issue: the scale of economic relief, the scope of Iran's nuclear commitments, and the future status of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims the US will pay $300 billion in reconstruction costs and release $24 billion in frozen assets; JD Vance immediately denied those claims. The only concrete phase-one element is a mutual lifting of blockades. Iran has been strangling the global economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz, while the US has been strangling Iran's economy with a naval blockade, costing Iran an estimated $