The Biggest IPO In History Isn’t What You Think It Is

April 28, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

This episode of Prof G Markets examines the hype and risks around SpaceX's planned IPO at a $2 trillion valuation, described by guest Patrick Boyle as potentially scandalous due to its structure and pricing. It also covers emerging markets' outperformance fueled by AI chipmakers, complacency toward oil supply risks from Iran tensions, and the renegotiated Microsoft-OpenAI partnership.

SpaceX IPO Mechanics and Index Inclusion

Patrick Boyle, professor at King's College London and former hedge fund manager, calls the SpaceX IPO a "scandal" not because of the company's merits, but due to how it's engineered for immediate demand. SpaceX targets a $2 trillion valuation—higher than Tesla's—implying 125 times sales, far exceeding historical norms like Sun Microsystems at 10 times sales in 2002, which its CEO deemed unsustainable without zero costs for staff, R&D, or manufacturing.

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What you'll learn

1 (02:03) **Market Vitals** - Mixed indices on Iran Strait talks; S&P/Nasdaq records, oil rises, MSFT dips then recovers on OpenAI news
2 (02:37) **SpaceX IPO Overview** - Targets $2T valuation as space, satellite internet, launch, and AI firm amid major questions
3 (03:06) **SpaceX IPO Risks** - Viability of space data centers, Musk control post-IPO, $2T sustainability in public markets
4 (03:27) **Guest: Patrick Boyle Intro** - King's College prof, ex-hedge funder, YouTuber calls it "SpaceX IPO scandal"
5 (03:58) **IPO Scandal Mechanics** - Forced fast-track to NASDAQ 100 with 15-day inclusion, high 4.5% weight despite low float
6 (04:50) **Extreme Valuation Critique** - 125x sales (not earnings); EBITDA $8B ignores rocket/satellite costs; Sun Microsystems 10x sales comp
7 (07:08) **Growth vs Valuation Mismatch** - 25% expected growth too slow for multiple; good company but overpriced investment

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Sid Jain joins the show to discuss how emerging markets have quietly become an AI trade. Finally, Ed breaks down the truce between Microsoft and OpenAI.

Patrick Boyle is a hedge fund manager, a university professor and a former investment banker. Sid Jain is a Deputy Portfolio Manager at GQG Partners.

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