SpaceX Is Down 40% — How Low Can It Go?

SpaceX stock has fallen 40% from its peak, dropping below its $135 IPO price for the first time and touching an all-time low of $132.75. The decline comes just one month after a record-breaking $86 billion debut that briefly made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire — and just one week after SpaceX joined the NASDAQ 100, meaning index funds bought in right before a 10% decline. Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens, one of the few analysts who has been bearish on SpaceX from the start, values the company at $62 per share — roughly half of where it trades today.

The Valuation Disagreement

Owens published his SpaceX research before the IPO, arriving at a probability-weighted fair value of $62 per share. His model breaks down into three scenarios: a medium case valuing the stock at about $71, a bear case, and a bull case that reaches $130–$160 — but only if "so many things going right" happen, which Owens assigns just a 7% probability. By contrast, 27 of 31 analysts covering the stock recommend it as a buy, with an average price target of $242. One analyst set a target of $800, which would value SpaceX at $10 trillion — double NVIDIA and Apple.