Scott Galloway’s Predictions for 2026

Scott Galloway opens his 2026 predictions for Prof G Markets with a blunt thesis: the AI boom is entering a correction phase, and the companies that have ridden it to absurd valuations are about to face a reckoning. The central argument is that the current AI landscape is defined by unsustainable expectations, a coming supply glut from China, and a bubble in data center infrastructure that will force a government bailout. Galloway’s framework is cyclical: extreme profitability attracts competition, which compresses margins, which triggers a correction, which then requires a state intervention to prop up the incumbents.

The China Shock and the AI Stock Correction

Galloway’s first and most consequential prediction is that AI stocks will correct in 2026. The mechanism is a deliberate strategy from China. He argues that Beijing, frustrated with the Trump administration’s erratic tariff policies, will “go for the jugular” by dumping cheap, open-weight AI models into the U.S. market. China has already reduced its exports to the U.S. by $70 billion in the last eight months, and its models are reaching technical parity with American ones. “If you can get 90 percent of OpenAI or Anthropic for 30 percent of the price,” Galloway says, “that's a really good value proposition.” He points to Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky publicly relying on Alibaba’s Qwen model as a signal that the shift i