Nvidia Says $1T Is Coming — The Market Isn’t Buying It

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang projected at least $1 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin AI chips through 2027, but investors largely dismissed it, with the stock rising only modestly. The episode also examines China's leverage in the Iran war over the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S. pressure, and details the conflict's accelerating economic effects like surging oil prices and inflation risks.

Nvidia's Revenue Projection and Market Skepticism

Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson, called Nvidia's $1 trillion forecast from Blackwell and Rubin chips through 2027 a "real number," building on Huang's earlier half-trillion estimate from six months prior, which he now says is too low. Huang clarified the figure excludes CPUs, Grok chips, networking, and Rubin Ultra, suggesting it's conservative given firm orders from Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta. Yet investors shrugged it off—adding just a half-trillion in one year barely moved the stock 1.5% post-keynote—implying expectations of a 2026 peak in data center buildouts. Luria noted this reveals market doubt: big tech's massive capex lacks matching revenue returns so far, fueling caution despite AI's transformative promise like mass unemployment and worthless software firms. Luria views the skepticism as warranted but an investment opportunity, expecting returns from OpenAI, Anthropic, and rising consumer/enterpr