Inflation Is About to Get Worse

🎙️ The Speakers & Context

• The Format: Host-led podcast with expert interviews and solo commentary.
• The Key Players:
  • Mark Zandi: Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics; credible for dissecting BLS data flaws, forecasting inflation via PCE/CPI synthesis, and weighting third-party metrics.
  • Liz Hoffman: Business and finance editor at Semafor; expert on DOJ internal dynamics, Trump-era policy shifts, and antitrust ideology.
  • Ed Elson: Host of Prof G Markets; provides contrarian market reads, valuation analysis, and calls out narrative gaps in tech/AI.
• The Vibe: Technical and skeptical—data dissection meets policy cynicism.

🎣 The Executive Hook

• The "One Big Idea": Official inflation metrics understate true pressures at ~3%, distorted by October data gaps, tariff pass-through (96% to consumers), and base effects; meanwhile, legacy tech like Amazon trades at fire-sale multiples despite massive AI stakes (e.g., ~20% of Anthropic). Investors overreact to AI disruption narratives, ignoring embedded upside in incumbents. Bridge the gap by communicating ownership transparently to re-rate multiples.
• Why It Matters: With Fed targeting 2% PCE amid tariff/immigration shocks, persistent 3%+ inflation delays cuts, squeezing multiples; AI hype erodes $2T+ in tech value, creating mispriced bets for capital allocators chasing **en