AI Summary
5 min readThe world’s richest man has spent $366 million on the current U.S. election cycle, far exceeding the $290 million he poured into the 2024 race. But according to Bradley Tusk, a venture capitalist and political strategist, that enormous sum is likely far less influential than it sounds. Tusk argues that most campaign money is wasted on broadcast television ads and direct mail — channels that fewer people actually see or pay attention to — and that the real drivers of political success are energy, charisma, and social media virality.
The Diminishing Returns of Big Money
Tusk’s central claim is that the role of money in politics is overrated. He points to examples like Donald Trump, who was outspent by both Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris but won anyway, and New York Mayor Eric Adams (then a candidate), who spent $17 million to Andrew Cuomo’s $70 million and won decisively. The reason, Tusk argues, is that the traditional vehicles for political spending — broadcast TV spots and oversized mailers — are increasingly ineffective. “Not that many people watch broadcast TV anymore,” he notes, and direct mail “goes in the garbage without people even glancing at them.”
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:56) **Market Vitals & Midterm Money Intro** - Ed Elson recaps flat markets and bank earnings, then introduces the episode’s main topic: Elon Musk’s record $366M spending on the 2025-2026 midterms.
- 2 (03:53) **Bradley Tusk’s Hot Take: The ROI of Campaign Cash** - Bradley Tusk argues that the importance of money in politics is “overrated,” despite Musk’s huge outlay.
- 3 (06:25) **Why Musk is Spending More Despite Promising to Stop** - Tusk analyzes Musk’s motivation: desperation, a desire for leverage, and a need to protect himself from congressional oversight.
- 4 (08:07) **The Diminishing Returns of Billionaire Influence** - Tusk explains that money has a ceiling; after a certain point, more ads just make voters tune out.
- 5 (10:45) **Midterm Predictions: House Flips, Senate Stays Close** - Tusk predicts the House will flip to Democrats, but the Senate will remain a narrow Republican majority (roughly 52 seats).
- 6 (12:02) **Can Billionaire Money Backfire?** - Ed asks if taking money from unpopular billionaires like Elon Musk or Sam Altman can actually hurt a candidate.
- 7 (13:06) **The Future of Political Spending** - Tusk predicts the amount of money in politics will continue to rise, but its efficacy will keep decreasing.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Ed Elson is joined by Bradley Tusk to break down how Elon Musk is funding the midterms, whether that investment will pay off, and how he sees the elections playing out. Then, Gil Luria joins to unpack the sell-off in chip stocks and what he makes of valuations in the sector. Finally, Ed shares his take on Kimberly Guilfoyle’s resignation.
Bradley Tusk is a venture capitalist, political strategist, and writer. Gil Luria is the Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson.
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