AI Summary
5 min readTrump Plans to Shove What Where?
"Just when Democrats started letting themselves feel hope again, Republicans went ahead and unleashed their secret weapon," John Favreau said, before playing a clip of Donald Trump at an Alabama rally. "They never thought this was gonna happen. And it's their fault because they unleashed us. We're gonna win and we're gonna win big and we're gonna shove it up their ass, okay?" Tommy Vietor replied: "Sounds painful." The problem for Republicans, as the hosts laid out, is that Trump's secret weapon appears to be working for Democrats too. A new batch of New York Times/Siena polls across five red states Trump won by 11 to 16 points in 2024 — Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas — shows Trump's approval at just 40% and disapproval at 56%. One in five Trump voters in those states now disapprove of his job performance, and the result is that Democrats are leading or effectively tied in every Senate race in those states.
The Senate Map Shifts Red
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What you'll learn
- 1 (03:45) **Show Introduction and Polling Overview** - The hosts introduce the episode and preview a slate of new polls showing Democrats leading or tied in key red-state Senate and governor races with four weeks until the midterms.
- 2 (04:24) **Trump’s “Secret Weapon” and the Polling Landscape** - The hosts react to Trump’s claim that his campaigning is a secret weapon, then dive into the crosstabs of the New York Times/Siena polls.
- 3 (10:27) **Candidate Quality vs. National Party Brand** - The hosts analyze how Democratic candidates are outrunning their party’s national brand in red states.
- 4 (15:00) **Why Blue-State Races Are Closer** - The hosts pivot to explain why races in Maine and Michigan are tighter than those in red states.
- 5 (16:25) **Governor’s Races and Incumbency** - The hosts review governor’s race polls and discuss how they differ from Senate races.
- 6 (23:10) **Money Moves and the Expanding House Map** - The hosts discuss how both parties are shifting resources based on private polling.
- 7 (28:24) **Trump’s Campaigning and Contradictions** - The hosts cover Trump’s recent campaign activities, including a video endorsing vote-by-mail after years of claiming it is fraudulent.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
With less than 30 days until the midterms, Trump hits the campaign trail, promising Republican voters that they're going to "win big" and "shove it up their ass." (Whose? He didn't specify.) Meanwhile, the polls tell a different story, showing Democratic Senate candidates leading in five Republican states: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. Jon, Tommy, and Lovett discuss whether the Democratic momentum is too big to be true, Republican super PACs reallocating money to typically red states, and Trump doxxing Sen. Tom Cotton over daylight saving time dispute. Then the guys check in on the latest in the Michigan, Texas, and Florida Senate races, Kristi Noem's half-billion-dollar purchase of five jets on her way out the door at Homeland Security, and Vivek Ramaswamy's latest athletic passion: weightlifting. Finally, Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for governor in Texas, stops by the studio to talk to Tommy about opening up a lead on three-term Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
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