Poll Me Twice, Shame On Me

"His approval rating is 39%, disapproval at 58." That number, from Nate Silver's model, anchors the episode's central puzzle: Donald Trump is deeply unpopular heading into the midterms, yet his party might still hold the Senate because of a deeply unfavorable map and internal Democratic divisions. The conversation, hosted by Jon Lovett and featuring Silver, Claire Malone, and Galen Druke (promoting their new podcast Still Counting), works through what Trump would do if he wanted to win, which Senate races matter most, and what the battle between the left and center-left means for the party's identity.

What Trump Would Do (If He Cared About Winning)

If Trump were making "state of the art decisions based on the data," the panel agreed he would end the war with Iran quickly, undo the tariffs that remain after Supreme Court rulings, and step back from the spotlight. During his first term, his approval rating tended to rise when he receded from media attention. But the panel argued that strategy may no longer work. "What people are really upset about is the economy," Galen Druke said, and they won't forget about inflation and prices just because Trump stops tweeting. The worst decisions, Druke noted, get "baked in early" — the Iran quagmire, the trade war with Canada, the focus on a midterm convention that forces vulnerable House members to choose between loyalty and surviva