AI Summary
5 min readAlways Test Your Hopium
The New York Times Siena polls dropped this week and immediately scrambled every narrative about the 2026 midterms. In Michigan, Representative Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 49-44. In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas is up 50-45 over John Sununu. But in Maine, Troy Jackson trails Susan Collins 46-49 — the first major poll in weeks showing Collins ahead, and a result that sent Democratic strategists into a collective spin. The hosts spent much of the episode trying to figure out whether the Maine result is an outlier or an omen, and what it means for the broader political environment that has suddenly looked almost too good for Democrats.
The Polling Puzzle
The dominant story of the last week has been the bottom seemingly falling out for Republicans — Nate Silver's flipper model now gives Democrats a 69% chance of winning the Senate and 91% for the House. But the Times Siena polls brought everyone back to earth. In Maine, the most striking finding wasn't just Collins ahead — it was that Jackson's favorability rating was 41-49, with 18% of 2024 Kamala Harris voters holding an unfavorable impression of him. "I just do not buy that," Jon Favreau said. "It runs against the basic trend of polarization where people naturally have a reflexive favorable opinion of the people in their party."
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What you'll learn
- 1 (02:35) **Trump’s Press Ban Backfires in Court** - A judge orders the White House to restore press credentials for outlets it banned, while the hosts debate the real-world impact on accountability.
- 2 (09:16) **Republican Candidates Flee from Trump** - A wave of GOP candidates publicly distance themselves from the unpopular president, but the hosts see this as a desperate and likely ineffective last-minute shift.
- 3 (15:24) **Trump’s Self-Soothing Ad Campaign** - The White House uses taxpayer money to air a pro-Trump ad on Fox and Newsmax, a move the hosts call both legally dubious and psychologically revealing.
- 4 (18:56) **The Polling Avalanche: Too Good to Be True?** - The hosts grapple with a deluge of polls showing strong Democratic leads, then a sobering New York Times/Siena poll that brings them “back to Earth.”
- 5 (22:07) **Unskewing the Maine Poll: A Deep Dive** - John and Dan dissect the surprising Maine result, finding anomalies in the data that suggest the race is still a toss-up despite Collins’ lead.
- 6 (32:57) **The ProPublica Bombshell on Susan Collins** - A new report alleges Collins helped secure defense contracts in exchange for campaign donations, but the hosts are skeptical it will change many minds in Maine.
- 7 (39:15) **Michigan and New Hampshire: Lead but Underperform** - Both Slotkin and Pappas have solid leads but are underperforming the generic ballot, revealing specific weaknesses in their campaigns.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
The news is full of encouraging signs for Democrats. Is it all too good to be true?
Dan and Jon react to Republican candidates running away from Trump on Iran, then break down the latest polls — including a surprising Times/Siena result from Maine — to take a sober look at the range of outcomes (all of them good!) that are reasonable to expect.
Plus, a big win for freedom of the press and an eye-opening new warning about furries in the cockpit. Then, Tommy talks to activist and athlete Colin Kaepernick about life after the NFL, and his new book "The Perilous Fight."
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