Pivot Extra: From ‘Trump Curious’ to ‘Trump Furious’: Inside the Midterm Odds

October 25, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Midterm 2026: The Shift from “Trump Curious” to “Trump Furious”

Two weeks before the 2026 midterms, the political landscape has shifted in ways that surprised even the professionals who track it for a living. Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman, and Democratic pollster Terrance Woodbury joined Kara Swisher to explain what they’re seeing—and what voters should watch for.

The Shift That Didn’t Happen

The biggest surprise, according to Anderson, is a non-event: the usual late-summer tightening toward Republicans never materialized. In previous midterms, Democratic polling advantages in the summer tended to narrow as Election Day approached, as Republican voters tuned back in. This cycle, that convergence hasn’t happened. “Republicans have been a little more checked out,” Anderson said, and the expected re-engagement after Labor Day has been only partial.

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What you'll learn

1 (04:00) **Opening & Panel Introductions** - Kara Swisher introduces the panel of experts to discuss the 2026 midterm odds: Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, elections analyst Dave Wasserman, and Democratic pollster Terrence Woodbury.
2 (04:26) **Biggest Recent Polling Surprise: The Shift That Didn't Happen** - Kristen explains that the expected narrowing of the Democratic polling lead after Labor Day has not materialized.
3 (05:33) **Surprise: Democratic Opportunities in Deep-Red Districts** - Dave notes that polling shows Democrats competitive in districts Trump won by 15-20 points in 2024, such as Kentucky's 6th and New York's 21st.
4 (07:07) **Surprise: Rising "Perception of Power" Among Young Voters of Color** - Terrence explains that a key metric—voters' belief that their vote can make a difference—has surged among young Black and Latino voters, correlating with increased early voting.
5 (08:49) **House Projections: A 15-20 Seat Democratic Gain** - Dave breaks down the Cook Political Report's latest House forecast, citing unexpected Democratic strength in open Republican-held seats.
6 (10:53) **Senate Paths: Democrats Have Multiple Routes to a Majority** - Dave outlines the Senate map, noting that Democrats have more pickup opportunities than expected, including North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska.
7 (12:17) **Why Polls Might Be More Trustworthy This Time (No Trump on the Ballot)** - Kristen and Terrence explain that the absence of Donald Trump on the ballot removes a major source of polling error, as "Trump voters" are notoriously hard to poll.

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Guests on this episode

Kristen Soltis Anderson Kara Swisher

Show Notes

With just under two weeks until the midterms, Democrats have reason for cautious optimism. Analysts at the Cook Political Report project the party could flip the House. The Senate, meanwhile, has swung from Republican confidence earlier this year to a jump ball, and the Democratic party is also poised to regain a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010. But voters have been burned by polls before.

Kara sits down with a panel of experts to talk about whether a “blue wave” is coming, or if it’s more of a lack of enthusiasm from GOP voters that will result in a “red undertow.” They also discuss the impact of prediction markets and the affordability crisis on voters’ decision making, how Gen Z is thinking about all political parties and what the midterms could signal for 2028.

Kristen Soltis Anderson is a Republican pollster, founding partner of Echelon Insights and focus group moderator for The New York Times Opinion section’s America in Focus series. She’s also the author of "The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Keep Up)." David Wasserman is a senior editor and elections analyst for the non-partisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Terrance Woodbury is a Democratic pollster and president and founding partner of HIT Strategies, a research firm specializing in young voters and voters of color.

Questions? Comments? Email us at [email protected] or find us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Threads, and Bluesky @onwithkaraswisher.

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