“It’s Gonna Be a BLOODBATH” Midterm Elections Predictions With Piers Morgan | Feat Prof Jiang

October 15, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The host of Fox & Friends and author of Uniting the States, Brian Kilmeade, joined Piers Morgan to discuss his new history book and the state of American democracy, but the conversation quickly turned to the looming midterm elections. Kilmeade argued that the core American idea is "an opportunity to achieve freedom and liberty and whatever your potential is as a human being," paired with a sense of community and patriotism. Morgan pressed him on whether Donald Trump, a longtime acquaintance of both men, possesses a "monarchical" streak. Kilmeade conceded that Trump wants power but insisted the system is "built to frustrate" any autocratic ambitions, comparing Trump’s blunt style to Barack Obama’s more polished approach to similar executive actions. "Only Trump pitches right in the face and Obama dances right there," Kilmeade said, noting that both presidents pushed boundaries, but only one was perceived as offensive.

The War and the Economy as the Midterm Deciders

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What you'll learn

1 (00:31) **Opening Thesis: The "Bloodbath" Prediction** - Piers and Professor Zhang set the central question of the episode: will the midterms be a Republican disaster?
2 (01:35) **Interview: Brian Kilmeade on America's Identity** - Piers grills Fox & Friends host Brian Kilmeade on his new history book and the nature of American exceptionalism.
3 (10:01) **Kilmeade on Trump's Legacy and Political Tribalism** - The conversation shifts to Trump's lasting impact and the toxic state of American political discourse.
4 (14:52) **The War with Iran as a Political Catalyst** - The panel discusses whether the decision to attack Iran will be the defining issue that costs Republicans the midterms.
5 (23:25) **Midterm Preview: The Stakes and the Panel** - Piers introduces the main predictions panel, explaining why they are using prediction markets instead of traditional polls.
6 (27:07) **Nancy Mace: "Republicans Are Going to Get Whacked"** - Congresswoman Mace gives her gut feeling on the election, predicting a major loss for her party.
7 (29:54) **Professor Zhang's Honest Uncertainty** - The "Nostradamus" of predictions admits he has no idea what will happen, citing major unknown variables.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Brian Kilmeade Piers Morgan Nancy Mace Professor Zhang

Show Notes

Piers Morgan Uncensored is proudly independent and sponsored by:

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The US midterm elections are fast approaching, and the stakes could hardly be higher for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. With polls painting a grim picture for the president, could his second term be heading towards political gridlock, scandal and even impeachment?

But polls have been wrong before, particularly when it comes to Trump. Just ask Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who famously predicted a Kamala Harris victory on this show, or Professor Allan Lichtman, whose renowned 'Keys Method' also failed to call the last presidential election correctly.

So, with the midterms looming, we're taking a different approach to predicting the outcome.

Instead of relying on traditional polling or political forecasting models, we're turning to prediction markets, including Polymarket, to see what the money says about the battle for control of Congress.

Are prediction markets a more reliable guide to the political future? Can the wisdom of the crowd outperform the pollsters and pundits? And what do the latest market signals tell us about Trump's prospects as Republicans brace for a potentially bruising election?

Piers Morgan is first joined by Brian Kilmeade, author of Uniting the States: Six Crucial Moments That Forged the American Miracle, before welcoming a panel featuring Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace; Professor Jiang, game theorist and host of Predictive History; Lydia Moynihan, New York Post correspondent and commentator; Joe Walsh, host of Social Contract and former Republican Congressman; and Rich Baris, pollster at The People’s Pundit, to debate the stakes of the upcoming US midterm elections and what prediction markets reveal about the political outlook for Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

https://polymarket.us/midterms

Download the Polymarket App today. Deposit $10 and get $25 with code "UNCENSORED" https://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/PIERS50

00:00 Introduction

01:00 Brian Kilmeade joins Uncensored

02:00 Brian Kilmeade talks to Piers about his new book ‘Uniting The States’

05:10 The monarchy and Donald Trump

08:30 AD: ETHOS: Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/PIERS. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Trustpilot rating as of 8/1/2026.

09:30 Brian: They’re gonna study Donald Trump forever’

12:15 Brian’s big debate on Fo