Lula Wins in Brazil, Jordan Church Attack & Rubio’s CIA Call to Cuba

The PBD Podcast covers a sprawling set of developments this episode, anchored by the disputed Brazilian presidential election where Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. The hosts walk through the numbers, the procedural questions, and the geopolitical stakes, then move through a series of other stories: a deadly attack on Christians in Jordan, Marco Rubio’s unusual public call for Cubans to partner with the CIA, the Pentagon preparing bases for 90 days of self-sufficiency, and Elon Musk’s admission that he restricted Starlink access for Ukrainian drone strikes.

Brazil’s Election: The Numbers and the Dispute

The hosts present the raw vote counts as the starting point for suspicion. In round one, Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes to Lula’s 53.9 million, with three other candidates splitting 9.33 million votes. In round two, Lula jumped to 64.1 million votes while Bolsonaro went to 59.8 million — a 10.2 million vote increase for Lula versus only 3.7 million for Bolsonaro. The hosts argue this swing is statistically improbable, especially given that prediction markets had Bolsonaro at an 86% chance of winning the day before the election.