The Empire in Decline: Jiang Xueqin on Trump, Iran, and the Pattern of History

In July 2024, Jiang Xueqin made a prediction that seemed outlandish at the time: Donald Trump would win the election, then go to war with Iran, and then America would lose. Months later, with American forces assembled in the Middle East and Trump posting on Truth Social about a "whole civilization" that "probably will" end, Jiang's forecast no longer sounds like a fringe theory. Speaking from Beijing, where he teaches history and makes content for Western audiences, Jiang laid out the historical pattern that led him to that conclusion — and what he believes comes next.

The Pattern of Declining Empires

Jiang teaches world history stretching from cave paintings 10,000 years ago to the present, and he argues that a clear pattern emerges across millennia: empires in decline tend to launch risky, ill-advised wars they believe they can win easily, only to get bogged down in quagmires. The Persians invaded Greece in 490 BCE and were destroyed. The Athenian Empire launched a disastrous invasion of Sicily in 415 BCE during the Peloponnesian War. The most recent example is Vietnam. The common thread is hubris — the belief that you are invincible and can win a war without serious cost.