Their Arguments Haven't Been Weaker

Dave Smith and Robbie "the Fire" Bernstein open the episode by cataloging the absurdity of the current news cycle: a ceasefire that hasn't stopped the firing, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz justified as an effort to open it, and Melania Trump's sudden re-emergence on the Epstein story. But the episode's central target is the intellectual defense of the Trump administration's war with Iran, and specifically the two figures Smith sees as its most prominent apologists: Ben Shapiro and Douglas Murray.

The Shapiro Defense: Polls, Plans, and the One Exception

Smith plays a clip of Ben Shapiro arguing that the war hasn't hurt Trump's coalition, citing a poll showing 81% of Republicans believe the president has a clear plan. Smith's response is methodical. First, he notes that independents—the bloc that delivered Trump the 2024 popular vote—are the relevant measure, and their support has cratered. Second, he points out that "does he have a plan" is an absurdly low bar: Trump has cycled through at least five plans since the war began—the Iranian people rising up, enough bombing to force capitulation, threats against bridges and power plants, a ceasefire, and sending JD Vance to Pakistan. None worked. Smith asks what the follow-up question would show: of the 81% who say Trump has a plan, how many think it will succeed?