AI Summary
5 min readThe War on Iran: A Catastrophe Foretold
Scott Horton, a longtime foreign policy analyst and managing editor of Antiwar.com, joins Dave Smith to dissect the Trump administration's war on Iran — a conflict Horton has spent decades warning about. The conversation ranges from the strategic miscalculations that made the war possible to the moral catastrophe of its opening days, and the deep structural reasons why this war, like the ones before it, cannot end well.
Why the Pentagon Warned Against This War — and Trump Ignored Them
Horton explains that the military and intelligence establishment had already told George W. Bush in 2007 that attacking Iran was a bad idea. The Pentagon's assessment was blunt: America could certainly inflict massive damage, but it would not have "escalation dominance" — the ability to control whether the war ramps up or down. Iran could reach out and hit American forces and assets across the region. At the time, 150,000 troops were embedded with Shiite forces in Iraq who had sworn to take Iran's side if war came. The Pentagon told Bush they would execute the order, but they did not want to go to war.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:07) **Introduction & Guest Bio** - Dave introduces Scott Horton, his expertise on foreign policy and Iran, and his books (Fool's Errand, Enough Already, Provoked).
- 2 (02:44) **Context: The New War & Dave's Pre-Vacation Timing** - Dave explains why he wanted Scott on before leaving, noting the sudden escalation with Iran.
- 3 (03:40) **Opening Debate: Anti-War Unity vs. Trump Voter Blame** - Dave recounts a Twitter exchange with Mehdi Hassan and defends the need for anti-war unity regardless of who people voted for.
- 4 (08:28) **Scott's Take: Why He Couldn't Vote for Trump** - Scott explains his libertarian perspective and why Trump's Zionism was a poison pill that made him unable to vote for him.
- 5 (10:50) **Historical Precedent: The 2007 Push to War with Iran** - Scott details how the Bush administration tried to build a case for war with Iran in 2007, including the EFP (explosively formed penetrator) narrative.
- 6 (18:42) **Why the Pentagon Stopped Bush but Not Trump** - Scott explains the military's 2007 warning about escalation dominance and the risk of Order 66 from Shiite allies, and why Trump ignored similar advice.
- 7 (26:31) **The Incoherent Plan & Ignored Warnings** - Scott details how Trump ignored the National Intelligence Council's secret report and the Joint Chiefs' warning about running out of anti-missile missiles.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Dave Smith brings you the latest in politics! On this episode of Part Of The Problem, Dave is joined by Scott Horton to talk about people's changed feelings on Trump compared to his first term, potential boots on the ground in Iran, the connection to past terror wars, and more.
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