Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

June 11, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In 2023, a case of tomatoes that normally sells for around $30 on the wholesale market briefly hit $65. The culprit was not inflation or fertilizer costs, but a specific, brutal freeze in Florida that wiped out 80% of the state’s winter crop—over $150 million worth of tomatoes. This single weather event, combined with a complex trade dispute with Mexico, created a perfect storm that sent fresh tomato prices to their highest level in four decades.

The Anatomy of a Price Spike

The price of a fresh tomato is not driven by input costs like fertilizer or diesel in the short term. Instead, it is almost entirely a function of supply and demand, which is notoriously inelastic. When a freeze destroys a crop, demand doesn't change, so the price of the remaining supply skyrockets. This is exactly what happened in the winter of 2022-2023. Florida, which supplies about 30% of the U.S. winter tomato market, was decimated.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:54) **Introduction & Tomato Love** - Hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal introduce the episode and Joe's passion for tomatoes.
2 (04:44) **Guest Introduction: Jacob Krempel** - Tracy introduces Jacob Krempel, SVP of procurement and merchandising at Baldor Specialties.
3 (07:55) **How Restaurants Source Tomatoes** - Discussion of the relationship between distributors and chefs.
4 (10:42) **Why Tomato Prices Are Spiking** - Jacob explains the primary drivers of the current price surge.
5 (12:00) **Decomposing the Price of a Tomato** - Breakdown of the wholesale cost structure.
6 (15:03) **The Globalization of Tomato Production** - History of the shift from US to Mexican production.
7 (20:55) **Retail Pricing vs. Wholesale** - How retailers handle price spikes differently from restaurants.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

In April, the price of tomatoes was around $2.69 per pound — the highest seen in some four decades. And tomatoes aren't the only food getting more expensive. From cauliflower to lettuce, fresh produce is spiking all over the place. So what's driving the price spike? And what can tomatoes teach us teach about America's political economy including changes in trade and tariffs? Our guest today is Jacob Krempel, senior vice president of procurement and merchandising at the wholesale food distributor Baldor, and an expert in securing fresh produce. We talk to him about where America's tomato supply actually comes from, why consumers are paying more and more, how restaurants navigate price fluctuations, and the influx of novel new tomato varieties.

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