These Are the Sharps Actually Making Money on Prediction Markets

July 6, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Sharps Making Real Money on Prediction Markets

A New York Times article titled "The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets" caught the attention of the Odd Lots hosts, who were skeptical. Joe Weisenthal admits he "viscerally" dislikes the gamification of trading and gambling ads that imply everyone wins. But the article described a small group of traders who consistently beat the market—and the hosts wanted to understand how. They brought on the article's reporter, Adam, plus two of the traders profiled: Brian Golden, who specializes in inflation contracts, and Daniel Reichman (known online as Carnitas Taco), who focuses on elections and politics. Both are members of a Discord group called the MAGA Kiwi Club, a name that is "ironic" and emerged as an inside joke. The group operates like a multi-strategy fund: each person manages their own portfolio but shares information freely across specialties.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:21) **Introduction: The Hosts' Skepticism About Prediction Markets** - Joe and Tracy air their distaste for the gamification and zero-sum nature of prediction markets, contrasting them with traditional investing.
2 (05:05) **Meet the Sharps: The MAGA Kiwi Club** - Introduction of the guests: journalist Adam, and two top prediction market traders, Brian Golden (inflation) and Daniel Reichman (elections/politics), who are part of a shared Discord group.
3 (09:52) **The Edge: Work, Data, and Avoiding Echo Chambers** - The traders explain how they consistently beat the market, emphasizing hard work, original research, and staying rational.
4 (12:44) **The "Spencer Pratt" Mispricing: How Echo Chambers Create Easy Money** - A concrete example of a wildly mispriced market caused by a siloed media ecosystem.
5 (14:43) **The Edge in Detail: Original Research and On-the-Ground Reporting** - The traders explain the specific, labor-intensive methods that give them an edge over the market.
6 (20:11) **Brian's Inflation Model: Beating Wall Street with Excel** - A deep dive into how a drama major with an Excel spreadsheet consistently outperforms the Bloomberg consensus on CPI.
7 (25:16) **Tactical Trading: When to Hold vs. Sell at 99 Cents** - A discussion on the market structure of resolution and the decision to hold a near-certain contract or deploy capital elsewhere.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Here's a couple things about prediction markets. A lot of it is pure gambling and speculation, much of it on things with very little economic relevance. Another fact is that in all likelihood, if you yourself started trading right now, you'd probably lose your shirt. But there is money being made by some dedicated traders, really focused on areas like politics and economics. On this episode, we speak with Brian Golden and Daniel Reichman, who are part of a private Discord called Maga Kiwi Club, where serious prediction markets traders swap ideas and make real money. We discuss the remarkable efforts they go to in order to spot opportunities, the systematic biases among traders, how they feel about insider trading, and other major issues that surround the space. Alongside Brian and Daniel, we also speak with NYC-based journalist and producer Adam Iscoe, who recently profiled these traders for The New York Times Magazine.

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