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The Bank of England's Megan Greene on Monetary Policy in a World of Supply Shocks

May 11, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Megan Greene, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), joined Odd Lots to discuss setting interest rates amid persistent supply shocks. Drawing from her private-sector and international background, she explains the challenges of UK monetary policy, including weak growth, sticky inflation, and risks from events like the recent energy shock tied to tensions in Iran.

MPC Structure and External Perspectives

The MPC has nine members: five internal executives (governor, deputies, chief economist) and four externals from outside the Bank, like Greene, to counter groupthink. Externals work separately and bring diverse views—hers include business conditions and global spillovers, such as US and Eurozone effects on UK yields (now half from abroad post-pandemic). Votes are public, with dissents common (e.g., four last time, mirroring recent Fed splits), ensuring accountability. The Bank's mandate prioritizes 2% inflation sustainably over the medium term; supporting government goals is secondary and untested recently, as inflation has exceeded target for nearly five years.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:58) **Episode Intro** - Hosts discuss knowing experts in power and preview monetary policy amid inflation, politics, supply shocks
  • 2 (05:25) **Transition to MPC Role** - Greene describes shift from analyst to policymaker
  • 3 (06:15) **MPC Structure Explained** - Nine members: 5 internals, 4 externals to fight groupthink
  • 4 (09:53) **BOE Mandate Defined** - Primary: 2% inflation sustainably; secondary: support government goals
  • 5 (10:22) **UK Economy Health** - Weak growth (0.2% quarterly); both demand and supply sides impaired
  • 6 (11:20) **Supply Shocks Diagnosed** - Successive hits (COVID, Ukraine); not just demand weakness
  • 7 (13:36) **Inflation Persistence Warning Signs** - Forward indicators (DMP survey, agents' pay settlements) stalling

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Ever since Covid, central banks around the world have had the same problem. They have tools that are designed to modulate demand, but so many challenges have involved the supply side of the economy. Whether we're talking about supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and now the war in Iran, these are all issues for which monetary policy is of limited value. Of course, the temptation is to "look through" these events, recognizing the fact that these disruptions don't say much about the actual underlying state of the economy. But when we get one shock after another, it gets harder and harder to keep using words like "transitory." On this episode we speak with Megan Greene, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England. We talk about the compounding effects of all these shocks (including the trade war and Brexit), how she's thinking about the first- and second-order effects of each, and why for now, despite the underlying weakness of the UK economy, she remains squarely focused on the risks of higher inflation.

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